Global Markets Update Strains have eased but banks aren’t out of the woods yet Financial market strains have eased over recent weeks, though some pockets of uncertainty remain and our sense is that the risk of further problems emerging in the coming months remains high. 14th April 2023 · 11 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Core inflation remains stubborn, RUB under pressure The raft of March inflation data released across Emerging Europe this week showed that the regional disinflation process is now well underway, but that core price pressures remain incredibly strong... 14th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Lower Treasury yields likely to continue supporting gold The recent strength in the gold price will probably continue over the course of this year and into 2024 as lower “risk-free” interest rates enhance the yellow metal’s relative appeal. 13th April 2023 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update The Turkish lira can’t defy gravity forever Although the Turkish lira is at its weakest ever level against the US dollar, it would have fallen far further by now were it not for intervention by policymakers. We anticipate that the currency will... 13th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update We think equities won’t move together with oil for a while Although equity and oil prices are usually positively correlated, we think equities will struggle in the next few months and that oil prices will end this year somewhat higher than they are now. We... 13th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Governor Ueda to cull YCC as his first act Japan has escaped the recent banking turmoil in the US and Switzerland relatively unscathed. While banks face some risks arising from their lending exposure overseas, there are no signs of liquidity... 12th April 2023 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily Ueda-driven drop in the yen unlikely to last Amid a holiday-affected few days in financial markets, one move that stands out is the fall of the yen. But we doubt its weakness will last much longer. 11th April 2023 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Safe -haven currencies edge higher ahead of payrolls It has been another relatively subdued week in currency markets, but despite another batch of disappointing economic data out of the US and accompanying falls in US interest rate expectations, the... 6th April 2023 · 9 mins read
FX Markets Valuations Monitor Valuation gaps have narrowed for most currencies Improved economic fundamentals outside the US have coincided with the dollar’s sharp fall since last September, narrowing the greenback’s substantial overvaluation. But we still think that it remains... 6th April 2023 · 19 mins read
Asset Allocation Update UK stock market outperformance may not resume soon The UK stock market has been caught in the crossfire of recent sectoral trends in global equities, leading to a period of underperformance over the past month. Despite tentative signs of that going... 6th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The US stock market is not braced for a recession We anticipate that the S&P 500 will fall back later in 2023, largely because analysts are far from pricing in a recession in the US that we think is even more likely after the recent banking turmoil... 6th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We see weaker growth ending the rally in US equities The resilience of the S&P 500 over the past month or so makes some sense given the boost to valuations from lower “risk-free” interest rates. That said, we think that equity investors are... 4th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt higher oil prices will stop Treasury yields falling further Although the decision by OPEC+ members to cut oil production might push up oil prices further, we don’t think that will stop US Treasury yields falling further over the rest of the year. 3rd April 2023 · 6 mins read
China Chart Pack Uneven consumer recovery slowing down Consumer spending jumped during the first two months of the year as virus disruptions faded. The March retail sales data won’t be published for another couple of weeks. But the data we have so far... 3rd April 2023 · 11 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook We doubt that risky assets will remain so resilient Despite only being three months old, 2023 has already seen several macro narratives play out in markets. “Soft landing” optimism in January was followed by a “no landing” narrative in February which... 31st March 2023 · 21 mins read
