FX Markets Chart Pack US dollar skids on rebound in risk sentiment Renewed optimism in global markets – in large part tied to hopes for a Fed “pivot” – pushed the US dollar down against most major currencies last month. But with a global recession on the horizon, we... 1st December 2022 · 11 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Squaring yield curve inversion with the rally in risky assets While the progressive inversion of the Treasury yield curve may seem inconsistent with the recent rebound in risky assets in the US, they had already discounted some bad news about the economy... 30th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Sustained turnaround in China’s markets probably still some way off We continue to think that recent optimism around the prospects for China’s economy and financial markets will founder. 30th November 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Being patient with the pivot Although we agree with the markets that the Bank of England will be patient and won’t pivot from raising interest rates to actually cutting interest rates until 2024, we think that fading inflation... 30th November 2022 · 13 mins read
Capital Daily Bund yields may not fall much more given outlook for inflation Although Bund yields have fallen today amid early signs that inflation may have peaked in the euro-zone, we don’t expect those yields to continue to drop sharply given only a gradual decline in core... 29th November 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update More reasons why we don’t think the dollar has peaked (yet) Although the rally in the US dollar has seen a significant reversal over recent weeks, indicators from past turning points in the greenback suggest to us that there remains scope for the dollar to... 29th November 2022 · 4 mins read
China Chart Pack Early preparations to exit zero-COVID Concrete signs of an effort to exit from zero-COVID are emerging, with a notice today of a push to vaccinate the elderly. The low level of vaccine coverage of the most vulnerable is, along with a lack... 29th November 2022 · 12 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Tightening cycles have a bit further to run Most central banks across Sub-Saharan Africa raised interest rates over the past month and, in contrast to many other parts of the emerging world, we think tightening cycles will last a while longer... 29th November 2022 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily Another look at the prospects for equity sector performance A continuation of last week’s twin slump in US “risk-free” real government bond yields and global high-yield credit spreads would be a relative boon for comparatively rate-sensitive, cyclical sectors... 28th November 2022 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Valuations may limit the outperformance of Indian equities We think the stretched valuations of Indian equities compared to those elsewhere will prevent the standout performance of Indian equities seen so far in 2022 being sustained over the longer run. China... 28th November 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily A lot of bad news already seems discounted in China Chinese equities have held up remarkably well in the past few weeks, despite a serious COVID outbreak that raises the risk of a lot of disruption to the economy. That might reflect how a lot of bad... 25th November 2022 · 8 mins read
Asset Allocation Update US equities, bonds and earnings recessions We doubt the recent outperformance of equities vis-à-vis government bonds in the US will persist over the next three to six months, given our view that the economy there is heading for a mild... 25th November 2022 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap “Pivot” hopes keep the dollar on the back foot The US dollar came under renewed pressure and is set to end the week lower against most major currencies. To a large extent, this weakness came in response to surprisingly strong durable goods data... 25th November 2022 · 9 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Q4) Our Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections in this... 25th November 2022 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack We expect bond yields and equities to fall in tandem Most developed market government bonds and equity benchmarks have rallied over the past month or so, but we doubt this twin rally will persist. While we think bond yields will end 2023 lower than they... 25th November 2022 · 8 mins read
Event China Drop-In: zero-COVID at the limits – domestic and global consequences 1669734000 As China's new infection numbers hit a record, its zero-COVID policy is coming under severe strain.
