Capital Daily US growth stocks may lose some more of their shine We think that the more recent underperformance of some of the largest US growth stocks could be a sign of things to come over the coming years, given how large the valuation gaps between growth and... 21st April 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Economics Update Answering your questions about our new FCIs We held an online Drop-In yesterday to present our new financial conditions indices and discuss how conditions have evolved in the wake of SVB’s collapse. (See a recording here). This Update addresses... 21st April 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update Undervalued krone likely to rebound later this year The Norwegian krone has been the worst G10 performer against the US dollar by some way in recent months. Though lower energy prices and weakening risk sentiment have likely played a role, we suspect... 21st April 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update We think the global growth backdrop stills favours the US dollar While stronger-than-expected data out of Europe and China have weighed on the dollar over the past two quarters, our view is that the current global backdrop points to a rebound in the greenback... 21st April 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Growth stock valuations still look unsustainably high We would not be surprised if US “growth” stocks outperformed their “value” peers by a bit more in the near term. But we still suspect that growth will underperform value substantially over the longer... 21st April 2023 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Bad news for risky assets: financial conditions really are tight We think Fed Chair Powell was right to suggest last month that financial conditions have probably tightened by more than the traditional indices imply. That spells bad news for risky assets. We are... 20th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are we too optimistic about euro-zone yields? Listed markets in Europe have been surprisingly downbeat about prospects for real estate relative to other regions. While we think that largely reflects mis-pricing in equity markets, it provides a... 20th April 2023 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack The geopolitical balancing act India is benefitting from maintaining its historic unaligned stance in tensions between the US and Russia. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, India has been ramping up oil imports from Russia to... 20th April 2023 · 10 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: BOJ Special – Governor Ueda’s debut and the future of YCC 1682668800 As the new Bank of Japan Governor prepares to chair his first policy meeting, the future of the Yield Curve Control policy is again in focus. Will Kazuo Ueda bring continuity or change?
Capital Daily Persistent UK inflation unlikely to preclude lower Gilt yields While we think investors are correct to price in more persistent UK inflation, we think a sharp decline in core inflation next year will allow the Bank of England to cut rates by more than most expect... 19th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update The rally in euro-zone equities may reverse before long We think euro-zone equities will struggle as the region’s economy weakens more than investors expect. 19th April 2023 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Taking stock of our Treasury and S&P 500 forecasts We think investors’ expectations for the Fed funds rate will fall a little by the end of this year, which will push the 10-year Treasury yield a bit lower by end-2023. But we doubt lower “risk-free”... 19th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Focus Introducing our new financial conditions indices (FCIs) We have revamped our financial conditions indices (FCIs) for DM economies. This document sets out a framework for analysing financial conditions, explains our methodology, presents and interprets our... 18th April 2023 · 20 mins read
Asset Allocation Update A tale of two listed real estate markets While US equity REITs are a long way from discounting the “best of times” for US commercial real estate (CRE) over the coming quarters, listed real estate stocks in Europe appear braced for something... 17th April 2023 · 8 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Central banks’ reaction functions diverge Central banks in Australia and New Zealand have taken starkly different approaches to managing the inflation-unemployment trade-off in their countries. Despite being behind the curve on interest-rate... 17th April 2023 · 11 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Another tough week for dollar bulls Despite a bounce today, the US dollar is set to end the week lower against most currencies and around its weakest level, in aggregate, in a year. This partly reflects that, even though Treasury yields... 14th April 2023 · 9 mins read
