Capital Daily Dovish Bank of Canada points to widening US-Canada yield gap We think the yield gap between 10-year US Treasuries and Canadian Government Bonds will remain wide next year, as we expect the Bank of Canada is nearing an early end of its hiking cycle and will... 8th December 2022 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update On the timing and scale of a sustained rebound in the S&P 500 We suspect that the S&P 500 will make a new cyclical low by the spring of 2023 as a shallow recession gets underway in the US, before rebounding to end next year higher than it is now. In view of the... 8th December 2022 · 4 mins read
India Economic Outlook End of tightening in sight The RBI has slowed the pace of rate hikes and is likely to call a halt to tightening in early 2023. As the economy weakens, rate cuts could come onto the agenda by late next year and materialise in... 8th December 2022 · 19 mins read
Capital Daily What China’s re-opening could mean for global markets An accelerated re-opening of China’s economy wouldn’t necessarily be good for global bonds and equities if it stoked inflation in developed markets. But a more gradual re-opening could be more benign... 7th December 2022 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Central banks to ease off the brakes as growth slows The recent resilience of economic activity in Latin America will not last and we think that growth will slow by more than most expect in 2023. Having been among the first to tighten monetary policy... 7th December 2022 · 25 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Firmer evidence of easing price pressures Data over the past month have brought the clearest signs yet that inflation is starting to ease. Our estimate of world CPI inflation fell for the first time in 15 months in October, from 7.9% to 7.7%... 7th December 2022 · 12 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM financial risks mounting as 2023 approaches Global risk appetite has improved in recent weeks, easing some of the strains in EMs. But economic and financial vulnerabilities in EMs are larger going into 2023 than they were at this point last... 7th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Foreign capital inflows into EMs picked up sharply over the past month amidst improved investor risk appetite and a depreciating US dollar. But there are signs in the very latest data points that... 6th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily A few reasons for caution on the China rally While investors in Chinese equities have had some more reasons to cheer of late, we doubt that they will reverse much more than a small fraction of their earlier underperformance relative to US stocks... 5th December 2022 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Politics and policymaking in SA: stirred or shaken? South Africa’s political turmoil that severely endangered President Cyril Ramaphosa’s position has already shaken the country’s financial markets. In part, this is related to the prospect of the... 2nd December 2022 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar’s struggles continue on Powell’s mixed messages Today’s US non-farm payrolls data provided some relief to the US dollar, but it still looks set to end the week lower against most major currencies. This weakness mostly reflects the market reaction... 2nd December 2022 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily Strong payroll numbers don’t change our view of Treasuries We still think that the 10-year Treasury yield will end next year lower than it is now, despite the latest US employment data. 2nd December 2022 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Outperformance of European equities may be short-lived Despite the rally that began in October continuing throughout November, US equities still underperformed their European counterparts in common-currency terms last month. Admittedly, exchange rate... 2nd December 2022 · 13 mins read
Global Markets Update China’s zero-COVID stance and global markets If China’s authorities were to accelerate the abandonment of their zero-COVID policies, we think it could actually prove a headwind for global asset prices. But we doubt they will do so for a while... 2nd December 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We think the equity rally will run out of steam The upbeat market reaction to Fed Chair Powell’s speech last night topped off a storming November for equity markets. But the rally in equities has generally taken a breather today after a... 1st December 2022 · 7 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack Zero-COVID’s end might not be panacea for China’s markets Although Chinese stocks have reversed a two year or so downward trend in the past month amid hopes that zero-COVID policies will end, we doubt this is a sign of things to come in the near term. 1st December 2022 · 8 mins read
