FX Markets Weekly Wrap ECB steals the show, but the dollar rebounds After a choppy few days in financial markets, the US dollar is ending the week a touch stronger against most other major currencies as risk sentiment has worsened sharply in the wake of the latest... 16th December 2022 · 10 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Leadership changes in South Africa? Ghana’s IMF boost South Africa’s president dodged impeachment earlier this week and is likely to be re-elected as leader of the ruling ANC party over the weekend, but the country’s economic challenges have only grown... 16th December 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We think that the BTP/ Bund spread will widen a bit more After rising sharply after Thursday’s ECB meeting, we think the 10-year BTP/ Bund spread will widen a bit more in the coming months. But we don’t think that the recent divergence between 10-year... 16th December 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the latest central bank bonanza The last round of major central bank meetings for the year has proven an eventful one, with some surprising messages sending financial markets into another policymaker-induced convulsion. Three key... 15th December 2022 · 8 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The World in 2023: What to look for in financial markets Two of the three topics we expect to dominate the global macroeconomic debate in 2023 – falling inflation and future monetary policy loosening – are now largely priced into markets in the US. The... 15th December 2022 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily Renminbi rally may stall even as the Fed turns less hawkish We think the recent rally in the renminbi against the US dollar will lose a bit of steam over the next few months, as China’s economy struggles amid virus-related disruptions. 14th December 2022 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update What re-opening might mean for China’s markets We suspect investors are underestimating how disruptive the transition from zero-COVID will prove for China, which could threaten some of the recent rises in the country’s equity prices, bond yields... 14th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t think US disinflation will prevent a drop in US equities The weaker US inflation data released today have bolstered our view that Treasury yields will drop a bit between now and the end of next year. But we still think that growing fears of a recession will... 13th December 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We think the rally in DM government bond is mostly behind us With nominal bond yields having fallen considerably over the past month, we think there is now less scope for developed market government bonds to rally over the next couple of years. 12th December 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update We think US corporate bond spreads will widen again Although US corporate bond spreads have been falling since mid-October, we expect them to rise again before long as the global economy slips into recession. 12th December 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Another look at the stock-bond correlation The positive correlation between the prices of stocks and bonds that has defined much of this year in financial markets may be starting to weaken. Our sense is that this shift back towards the... 9th December 2022 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Energy stocks may hold up better than oil prices suggest Even if oil prices don’t rebound substantially in the near term, we doubt developed market equities in the energy sector will reverse course and underperform the rest of the stock market next year. In... 9th December 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap FX markets calm ahead of central bank meetings & US CPI Even after a small boost following the release of US PPI data today, the US dollar seems set to end this “data-light” week broadly unchanged against most major currencies. By contrast, we suspect next... 9th December 2022 · 11 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect the loonie to weaken further against the US dollar The Canadian dollar has underperformed most other currencies over recent weeks, and we expect it to depreciate further against the US dollar over the first half of next year. In view of the wider... 9th December 2022 · 3 mins read
China Economic Outlook Bumpy road before zero-COVID is left behind The authorities are making policy changes to address two of the key drags on China’s economy, the zero-COVID policy and the property sector downturn. But it will be a while before these efforts bear... 9th December 2022 · 23 mins read
Global Markets Update Treasury rally may almost have run its course We expect the 10-year Treasury yield to decline only a little further as US inflation continues to ease. 9th December 2022 · 3 mins read
