Capital Daily What to make of China’s ongoing re-opening The speed of China’s ongoing reopening, and how quickly the country’s economy seems to have absorbed its impact, has surprised many and prompted big moves in the country’s financial markets. We think... 10th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Riots add to challenges for Brazil’s markets The storming of Brazil’s congress by protestors on Sunday has been negative for the country’s markets, and we think there are other factors that will drag those markets down further. Drop-Ins – The... 9th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Increasing doubt over Yield Curve Control’s longevity In less than two months, we should know who will replace Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda Haruhiko, whose term ends on 8th April. Whoever replaces him will be under increasing pressure from the... 9th January 2023 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily Soft landing or disinflationary bust? While investors seem to have judged that today’s batch of data supports the case for a soft landing, our view remains that the US economy faces a tough couple of quarters. With this in mind, we expect... 6th January 2023 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rebound stalls on softening US economy Financial markets have begun 2023 on a cautious note, see-sawing on mixed data. Although it has dropped back today, the US dollar has started the new year on the front foot, rising against most other... 6th January 2023 · 9 mins read
Asset Allocation Update How 2022 altered the long-run outlook for US equities Although valuation premia in certain parts of the US stock market shrank significantly last year, we think there is still some room for this to continue in the coming decade and weigh on their... 6th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Despite hawkish ECB, we expect lower E-Z yields While we think the hawkish ECB poses a near-term threat to euro-zone government bonds, we still expect their yields to be lower, in general, by the end of this year. Drop-Ins – The World In 2023 (10... 6th January 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Another look at the Hong Kong dollar Downward pressure on the Hong Kong dollar has abated in recent weeks and we think it is very unlikely that the existing currency framework will be abandoned any time soon. In view of the wider... 6th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury yields may fall as the Fed changes its tune Despite the FOMC suggesting otherwise, we expect the Fed to be cutting rates by the end of 2023, as the nascent trend of disinflation continues. This informs our forecast that the 10-year Treasury... 5th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the New Year turnaround in euro-zone bonds Although we see some near-term risk due to the still-hawkish ECB, we expect the yield of 10-year German Bunds to decline further by end-2023. Drop-Ins – The World In 2023 (10-11 January): Will 2023 be... 4th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Dollar rebound may set the tone for early 2023 After struggling in the last quarter of 2022, the US dollar has started the new year with a bang. We think the greenback’s rebound has further to run over the coming months. 3rd January 2023 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap BoJ ends chaotic year in currency markets with a bang The BoJ’s surprise decision to widen the tolerance band around its yield curve control target earlier this week will hopefully prove the final curveball of what has been an eventful year across... 23rd December 2022 · 12 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly New 10-year ceiling will be tested before long The widening of the tolerance band around the BoJ’s target for 10-year yields announced on Tuesday aims to improve bond market functioning. But if this week is any guide, that purpose remains out of... 23rd December 2022 · 9 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Equities may take longer to turn a corner than bonds A renewed pullback in global equity markets and rise in bond yields in December is set to cap off a historically poor year for returns from both “risky” and “safe” asset classes. In fact, once the... 22nd December 2022 · 13 mins read
Commodities Update Rise in risk appetite for industrial metals is premature Unusually, investors have been reducing their net-long position in the oil futures market, but increasing their position in industrial metals. We suspect this reflects optimism about China reopening... 22nd December 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the latest sell-off in bonds sets the tone for 2023 We doubt the surge in the yields of developed market high-grade government bonds over the past week marks the start of a return to the pattern of the first three quarters of 2022. Instead, we forecast... 22nd December 2022 · 7 mins read
