Global Markets Update How abandoning Yield Curve Control would affect JGBs We think the yield of 10-year Japanese Government Bonds would rise to at least 1% if the Bank of Japan decided to abandon Yield Curve Control, which could conceivably happen as soon as tomorrow. But... 17th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Long Run Update Pouring cold water on the “petroyuan” The process of “global fracturing” that we outlined in our annual Spotlight series last year will remain the dominant macro theme for the next decade. But speculation that it will result in the rise... 17th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Plunge in credit spreads another sign investors doubt recession While a fall in government bond yields and an improvement in appetite for risk have fuelled a strong start to 2023 by US equities, we doubt they will both remain sources of support in the coming... 16th January 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Yen rally continues as Yield Curve Control circles the drain The US dollar has remained under pressure as hopes of a “soft landing” continue to build and risk sentiment improves. While yesterday’s key US CPI data came out roughly in line with consensus... 13th January 2023 · 10 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Four key points to consider this US earnings season This Update makes four key points about corporate earnings in the US as the Q4 results season gets into swing. They all feed into our view that the S&P 500 will remain under pressure until the spring... 13th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The end of Yield Curve Control could boost the yen further An end to Japan’s Yield Curve Control policy looks increasingly likely, in our view, which could push the yen even higher. 13th January 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update Revising our financial market forecasts for China We have revised up our forecasts for equities in China, given a brighter outlook for the economy there. We have also increased our China 10-year sovereign bond yield forecast for end-2023, as we think... 13th January 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update China’s re-opening and currency markets While the medium-term outlook for the renminbi and other Asian currencies has improved, and we have revised some of our forecasts accordingly, we continue to anticipate that a deterioration in risk... 13th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Making the case for euro-zone equities While euro-zone equities face some meaningful short-term headwinds which threaten their recent run of outperformance, we still expect them to fare better than US equities over the next couple of years... 13th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Recent good news doesn’t preclude DM recessions The past month has brought a string of positive developments on the activity and inflation side. The biggest news has been China’s decision to throw in the towel on its zero-COVID policy, which... 13th January 2023 · 13 mins read
Global Markets Update Investors already seem braced for further falls in inflation Further big falls in inflation seem now to be discounted in major developed markets, especially the US. That helps to underpin our view that high-grade government bond markets will only rally a little... 12th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury yields may only have a bit further to fall The latest evidence of disinflation in the US was met with a muted reaction in US government bond markets. This probably reflects that investors’ expectations for inflation, and interest rates, have... 12th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Runners and riders in Nigeria’s upcoming elections In the first instalment of our Election Watch series ahead of the late-February polls in Nigeria, we assess the economic policies proposed by key candidates. The elections offer a chance to depart... 12th January 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily More good news in China may boost other EM equities further We think some emerging markets’ stock markets could continue to outperform if the economic picture in China continues to improve. 11th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Foreign capital inflows into EMs have picked up a little since the beginning of the year. This should provide some relief to those countries with sizeable current account deficits, including Chile... 11th January 2023 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: Is the BoJ gearing up to scrap yield curve control? 1674028800 Speculation is mounting that the Bank of Japan is finally moving to end its yield curve control (YCC) regime following December’s surprise policy tweak.
