Capital Daily We suspect gains in euro-zone equities may slow from here Today's PMIs added to a streak of stronger-than-expected economic data in the euro-zone. But much of the good news now appears to be discounted in euro-zone equities, so we expect them to rise at a... 24th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM prospects brighten at the start of the year The outlook for emerging markets is looking better than it did just a few weeks ago. Most obviously, China’s shift to living with COVID means that its economy will rebound far sooner than we had... 24th January 2023 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily The euro and relative interest rate expectations We don’t think government bond yield gaps with the US will continue to shift in favour of the euro-zone as they have over recent months, even if the ECB continues hiking after the Fed stops. That will... 23rd January 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap BoJ pushes back while the dollar continues to tread water The US dollar looks set to end the week broadly flat against major currencies after, by recent standards, a quiet week in FX markets. But Wednesday may have offered a glimpse of what is to come over... 20th January 2023 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily Reconciling our latest forecasts for JGBs and the yen Although the 10-year JGB yield has dropped back by about 10bp since the Bank of Japan refrained this week from abandoning Yield Curve Control, we think the yield will rebound when – or quite possibly... 20th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Event Canada Drop-In: Is this the end of the Bank of Canada’s tightening cycle? 1674666000 Join Paul Ashworth, our Chief North America Economist, Stephen Brown, who leads our Canada coverage, and Jonathan Peterson, Senior
FX Markets Update Taking stock of the outlook for the US dollar With inflationary pressures easing and the global growth outlook improving, we no longer expect the US dollar to breach its late September peak. But we still think that souring risk appetite... 20th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Rebounding won, Vietnam politics, dovish surprises The rebound in the won is unlikely to be welcomed by the country’s struggling exporters, but will come as a relief to the Bank of Korea, which had become worried that higher import prices would keep... 20th January 2023 · 12 mins read
Capital Daily Shift in the US stock-bond correlation might be here to stay We expect the negative correlation between the returns from Treasuries and US equities that followed yesterday’s poor batch of economic data to continue through to the spring, as inflation continues... 19th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Event Asia Drop-In: The latest on China’s reopening, Asian monetary policy, and markets 1674720000 China’s shift from zero-COVID is the big Asia story of the moment and our economists gave an update on what this means for the region’s growth outlook, including how quickly outbound tourism is rec
FX Markets Update Stronger yen still on the cards despite the BoJ’s obstinance While the Bank of Japan pushed back against expectations that it would end its Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy yesterday, we think it is only a matter of time before YCC bites the dust. That suggests... 19th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Is China’s stock market still relatively appealing? The powerful re-opening rally in China’s stock market has eroded a large part of the valuation gap that led us to judge that equities there were relatively appealing a couple of months ago. That said... 18th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Dollar and yen may benefit from weak global economy The latest signs that the US economy is losing momentum seem to have driven a risk-off mood in markets today, with equities struggling and the safe-haven US dollar and Japanese yen reversing earlier... 18th January 2023 · 5 mins read
India Chart Pack Global fracturing: India tilts further away from China India has historically remained unaligned geopolitically but we made the case last year that, in a fracturing global economy, it was more likely to lean towards a US-led bloc and away from a China-led... 18th January 2023 · 9 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Yields elsewhere point to a bit more pressure on JGBs We think that the prevailing yields of high-grade 10-year government bonds in other major developed markets support the idea that the 10-year Japanese government bond yield would rise a bit further... 17th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily YCC, rate expectations, and JGBs We think there is a good chance the 10-year JGB yield would rise a lot further than it has already if the BoJ chose to abandon Yield Curve Control (YCC) tomorrow. Nonetheless, we doubt any big... 17th January 2023 · 6 mins read
