EM Markets Chart Pack China’s recovery may continue to benefit EM equities We think the rapid economic recovery in China will lead to further gains in equities in China and other emerging markets this year. 31st January 2023 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily China’s stock market rally may have further to go Although China’s equities have now rallied a long way, we think they will make some further gains over the rest of this year. 31st January 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Financial conditions, central banks, and recessions The Fed, ECB and BoE meet later this week and we wouldn’t be surprised if they take the chance to push back against the recent loosening in financial conditions. And even if their words don’t have... 30th January 2023 · 6 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We still think some pain is coming for “risky” assets Although there has been some good news for risky assets over the past couple of months, we still think they will struggle before long as economic growth disappoints in major advanced economies. 30th January 2023 · 9 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Worse to come, but UK assets to outperform in 2024 While an improvement in appetite for risk has fuelled a strong start to 2023 by UK equities and sterling, we doubt this will remain a source of support as recessions in the US, the UK and the euro... 30th January 2023 · 13 mins read
Global Markets Update Reassessing our forecasts for euro-zone markets A streak of stronger-than-expected economic data in the euro-zone has given markets there a boost this year. But with much of the good news seemingly already discounted, and, in our view, a still... 27th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the latest rally in the S&P 500 will last We doubt the recent rally in the S&P 500 will prove sustainable. Our view is that US real yields won’t fall much further and that the US economy will soon enter a recession, producing some more near... 27th January 2023 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap US dollar remains rangebound ahead of key central banks The US dollar looks set to end another week broadly unchanged against most major currencies. Activity data released this week seemed consistent with resilience in European economies and near... 27th January 2023 · 13 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Weaker USD may help RoW equities outperform in time While a “risk-off” period in markets may prompt it to pause in the near term, we expect the recent pattern of the US dollar retreating as non-US equities outperform to set the tone for the next couple... 27th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Reasons for optimism on the Norwegian krone The recent depreciation of the Norwegian krone might have further to run, but we think that rising energy prices and improved investor risk appetite will cause it to strengthen in the second half of... 27th January 2023 · 6 mins read
Event EM Drop-In: What China’s re-opening means for emerging markets 1675350000 China has made an abrupt shift away from zero-COVID, prompting a wave of market euphoria – and some anxiety – about a surge in demand.
FX Markets Chart Pack We still think safe-haven demand will push up the USD Optimism around China’s rapid re-opening and stronger-than-expected data out of Europe have put continued pressure on the US dollar over the past month or so. In turn, we have revised down our... 26th January 2023 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily We think high-beta DM currencies will continue to underperform “High-beta” developed market currencies have strengthened less against the US dollar than their “low-beta” counterparts despite the rebound in risk sentiment. We expect the former group of currencies... 26th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Outperformance of UK equities may fade Although we think there is still a decent case for UK equities to continue outperforming those in the US over the next few years, we don’t expect the UK’s stock market to perform significantly better... 26th January 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Focus The implications of waning appetite for US Treasuries We forecast the 10-year Treasury yield to decline between now and the end of the year, as inflation eases further and the Fed transitions to monetary loosening. A key risk to this projection, in our... 26th January 2023 · 14 mins read
Global Markets Update We think equities in Japan will remain under pressure We think equities in Japan will come under renewed pressure in local-currency terms over the coming months, amid an economic slowdown and further strengthening in the yen. 25th January 2023 · 3 mins read
