Global Markets Update We think bond yields will fall in Canada & ANZ We think sovereign bond yields in Canada, Australia, and New Zealand will drop further by end-2023. 8th February 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Why the plunge in credit spreads may be a head fake A recent plunge in credit spreads in the US is one clear sign of hope that the economy there is heading for a soft landing. It jars, however, with two developments that point to the slightly gloomier... 7th February 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the recent US sector rotation Although the sectors in the S&P 500 that are dominated by US “big-tech” have outperformed the broader market substantially since the start of 2023, we aren’t convinced this will continue. 6th February 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We still think slow growth will weigh on US equities Despite some good news on the US economy today, we still expect US equities to struggle for a bit as growth slows. 3rd February 2023 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Robust US economic data spark a rebound in the greenback The US dollar looks likely to record its largest weekly rise against other major currencies since its cyclical peak in September of last year. While investors’ dovish interpretations of announcements... 3rd February 2023 · 11 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We have our doubts about the soft-landing rally Despite some better news recently, we still think that advanced economies face a tough couple of quarters, an outturn which does not seem to be fully discounted in financial markets. With this in mind... 3rd February 2023 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal support on its way, IPO reform largely cosmetic Government bond issuance, a timely proxy for the fiscal stance, fell year-on-year last month. But all the signs are that this will be temporary, with borrowing likely to ramp up in the coming months... 3rd February 2023 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Is the Adani crisis a macro concern? The short-seller attack on the Adani Group has continued to dominate the headlines this week. From the macro perspective there are few signs of contagion, with equities up slightly on the week in... 3rd February 2023 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China’s re-opening and EMs: three key questions We’ve received a lot of questions recently about the impact of China’s re-opening on EMs, including at our monthly Drop-in today. This Update answers three key questions on the winners and losers, the... 2nd February 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What the latest central bank meetings mean for markets Despite investors’ dovish interpretations of recent major central bank meetings, we don’t think monetary policy will give markets too much more of a boost. 2nd February 2023 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Assessing the winners and losers since China’s rebound Our view that the stock market in China will continue to recover in the coming months even as its counterpart in the US falters ahead of a mild recession there raises the question of how equities... 2nd February 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Three key points ahead of the FOMC We think that three main points are worth highlighting when gauging the scope for the Fed to spring a surprise on global markets when its policy meeting concludes later today. 1st February 2023 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Update We think FX market volatility will edge higher from here Tension across financial markets has come down significantly since November, contributing to the US dollar’s broad-based weakness in that period. Ahead of key central bank meetings this week, this... 1st February 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack We think the rally in risky assets is on borrowed time The broad-based rally in “risky” assets that got underway in Q4 of last year has continued in 2023 so far, with global equities, developed market (DM) REITs, corporate bonds and industrial metals all... 31st January 2023 · 12 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Growth faltering in region’s biggest economies While the economic outlook in much of the world has turned less downbeat in recent weeks, the prospects for Sub-Saharan Africa’s two biggest economies have, if anything, got gloomier due to homegrown... 31st January 2023 · 12 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Egypt: benefits of a weaker currency emerging The further falls in the Egyptian pound over the past month will push up inflation and prompt the central bank to deliver more monetary tightening, but there are already signs that the benefits of a... 31st January 2023 · 13 mins read
