Capital Daily Equity valuations may eventually get more stretched The valuations of equities are, in general, still a long way from being unprecedently high compared to those of government bonds. 5th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update US corporate bond spreads may rise again Corporate credit spreads have fallen back in the US over the past couple of weeks, while they have risen in the euro-zone and the UK. However, given our pessimistic view of the US economy, we suspect... 5th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Valuations may become a headwind for US equities US stock markets’ gains in recent months, both in absolute terms and relative to their European peers, owe a lot to their rising valuations. But equities in the US are now arguably quite highly valued... 3rd July 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar remains rangebound as FX market calm persists The US dollar has continued to tread water against most major currencies this week. With G10 central bankers generally sticking to their hawkish messages at the ECB’s Sintra conference and few major... 30th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Making sense of asset flows and the yen Reconciling the slide in Japan’s currency with big flows into its stock market from abroad and a perception that the appeal of foreign bonds to Japanese investors has waned in response to high hedging... 30th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily 2023: A year of two halves? “Risky” assets are clearly leading “safe” assets as we approach the halfway point of the year. But with recessions looming, we expect souring risk appetite to turn the game on its head in the second... 30th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Event Drop-In: Q3 Macro and Markets Outlook – From resilience to recession and beyond 1689084000 Will activity continue to hold up, or will monetary tightening take an ever greater toll on advanced economies?
FX Markets Outlook Recessions likely to drive the dollar higher While “riskier” currencies have generally had the best of it over the past couple of months, the dollar has remained rangebound and, in aggregate, is broadly unchanged on the year. With the euro-zone... 28th June 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We see Japan’s equities and the yen set for a U-turn We expect the yen’s weakness to reverse before long, weighing on the country’s stock market. And while the latter might hence hold up a bit better in US-dollar terms, we doubt it will do especially... 28th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Risk premia fall back Risk premia have fallen across the region over the past month. In the region’s largest economy, Nigeria, that has come on the back of a marked policy shift since President Tinubu took office in late... 28th June 2023 · 11 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook The implications of AI hype for asset returns Q2 looks set to go down as a decisive victory for “risky” assets over “safe” ones, thanks in large part to euphoria in the stock market over Artificial Intelligence (AI). But we suspect that the story... 27th June 2023 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Will Latin American equities keep outperforming? Latin American equities have, in US dollar terms, fared even better than their US peers so far this year. We think that their outperformance will be interrupted by the global “risk-off” environment we... 27th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Tourism’s long road to recovery The hit to tourism in the region from the COVID-19 pandemic finally appears to be over. Receipts and arrivals are now back to, or even above, seasonal norms in almost all countries. This will be... 27th June 2023 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily Rebellion in Russia; further weakness in the renminbi While the situation in Russia remains highly uncertain, our base case remains that the war with Ukraine will drag on for some time but continue to have a limited impact on broader financial markets... 26th June 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Outlook We expect near-term pain for equities, but medium-term gain We continue to expect risky assets to struggle over the second half of this year, as major developed market (DM) economies slip into recessions. Meanwhile, we think DM sovereign bonds will rally; that... 26th June 2023 · 15 mins read
Capital Daily Weak EZ PMIs point to lower euro and bond yields Lower-than-expected euro-zone PMIs in June support our view that economic activity will disappoint, which we think will push the euro and government bond yields down by the end of 2023. 23rd June 2023 · 4 mins read
