Asset Allocation Update Non-US equities during Trump’s first year back in office We think Trump’s trade policies will weigh on equity returns outside of the US, making 2025 a year of muted returns for emerging market equities. But we think it will still be a decent year for stocks... 22nd January 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Déjà vu all over again for Trump tariffs & currencies? Contradictory signals around the Trump administration’s plans for tariffs are an early indication that, at least in some ways, Trump’s second term will probably resemble the first. 21st January 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Trump’s term starts with a bang in markets Fresh reports that President Trump will not impose tariffs on Day 1 mean that his inauguration has, quite fittingly, coincided with a volatile day across financial markets. Although we suspect that a... 20th January 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap FX Weekly: Currency calm before Trump’s tariff storm hits? Despite further large swings in bond markets this week, moves in currency markets have for the most part remained relatively muted ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration next week. The dollar is broadly... 17th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Recent stock market patterns may not set the tone for 2025 Equities in Europe have done well so far this year, but we expect them to trail those in the US over the rest of 2025, as the US imposes universal tariffs and enthusiasm about AI returns. This would... 17th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Argentina’s peso risk, Sheinbaum’s Made in Mexico plan The decision by Argentina's government to slow the rate of depreciation of the peso will help to bring down inflation further. But it will also lead to a further appreciation in the real exchange rate... 17th January 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: INR weakness won’t prevent February rate cut Some commentators are suggesting that the recent weakness in the rupee will prevent the RBI from cutting interest rates next month. We see it differently. After all, the pace of depreciation is being... 17th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Bonds Update Is the Treasury sell-off over? We think Treasury yields will fall over the remainder of this year, but that the yield curve could nonetheless continue to steepen. 17th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Bonds Update Chinese bonds – is there any alternative? We think China’s 10-year government bond yield will fall to fresh record lows over the coming year, partly because the other investment options available to Chinese investors look increasingly... 16th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Are we on the cusp of a renewed rally in the yen? The Japanese yen has been boosted by the dip in US Treasury yields, and we think it will rally a bit further against the US dollar over 2025. 16th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Recovery in Treasuries may have further to go Today’s release of US CPI data for December did not change our view that the Fed will cut its policy rate by a bit more than investors anticipate, and in turn that Treasury yields will edge down... 15th January 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Six key questions on Trump & the dollar Donald Trump’s election win two months ago has already contributed to a rally in the US dollar, and we think there is a bit more to come this year. More broadly, the second Trump administration will... 15th January 2025 · 8 mins read
Global Economics Update Rising yields risk macro fallout If sustained, rising bond yields add to downside risks to economic growth. The potential direct effects on real activity are greatest in the US. But higher yields in other DMs could limit how far... 15th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Event Drop-In: Can India’s policymakers bring the good times back? 1738054800 For so long the darling of global investors, India’s economy and financial markets have hit a sticky patch of late.
Capital Daily It’s time for the S&P 500 to earn its stripes again It’s easy to forget the importance of earnings in influencing the S&P 500 when its performance is driven instead, as has been the case recently, by gyrations in the Treasury market. Earnings will be... 14th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update FX bond issuance ramps up, but the outlook is cloudy EM sovereign FX debt issuance surged over the past year and at the start of 2025, albeit with many sovereigns returning to global markets and issuing at high interest rates. Borrowing does not look... 14th January 2025 · 4 mins read
