Capital Daily EZ bond yields may fall back after one last ECB hike While we suspect that sticky core inflation in the euro-zone will mean “higher for longer” interest rates there, we think that the ECB will eventually deliver more rate cuts than currently priced into... 31st July 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack FX Markets Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) The dollar remains broadly unchanged on the year so far, but we continue to think that it (and the yen) will rally over the second half of the year as the long-anticipated recessions finally takes... 31st July 2023 · 0 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap End of YCC: keep calm and "carry" on The Fed’s emphasis on data dependency amid even more evidence of resilience in the US economy pushed US Treasury yields up and the greenback higher against most major G10 currencies this week. Taken... 28th July 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily RIP YCC: What next for Japanese and global markets? The Bank of Japan seems to have effectively ended yield curve control without making a big splash in financial markets, but we wouldn’t rule out further effects – on Japan’s markets and those around... 28th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Asset Allocation Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 28th July 2023 · 1 min read
FX Markets Update Effective end of YCC adds to the case for a stronger yen The BoJ’s decision earlier today to, in effect, end its long-standing Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy means that long-term government bond yields in Japan will become more responsive to economic... 28th July 2023 · 4 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Global Markets Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 28th July 2023 · 1 min read
Event EM Drop-In: Rate cuts, friendshoring, the carry trade and more 1691067600 In the latest of our monthly EM Drop-Ins, Shilan Shah le a team of economists from across our EM and Markets services to answer client questions on what’s happening in EM mac
Asset Allocation Update Are AI equity valuations justified? The sky-high valuations of some touted winners from AI have given rise to claims that their share prices have risen to unsustainably high levels. Is there anything we can learn from the dot com era? 26th July 2023 · 5 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor Global Markets Valuations Monitor (July 2023) The continued rise in the valuations of “risky” assets relative to “safe” ones mostly seems to reflect growing confidence in the economic outlook. We think that optimism will be disappointed and that... 26th July 2023 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Yield curve inversion and the end of tightening cycles If the Fed’s tightening cycle ends today, as we expect, then the yield curve will be unusually inverted for this point in the monetary policy cycle. We think it will remain so until next year. 26th July 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update The Mexican “super peso” looks poised for a sharp fall The Mexican peso’s relentless rise against the US dollar and most other major currencies is increasingly at odds with macroeconomic fundamentals. We think the peso is vulnerable to an abrupt fall over... 25th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the jump in China’s stock market Chinese equities enjoyed one of their best days in years today, and we think they may continue to outperform equities elsewhere over the rest of this year. But the longer-term prospects for China’s... 25th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: Bank of England – Another 50bps hike or back to 25bps? 1691071200 Analysts are split on whether the BoE will repeat June’s 50bps rate hike at the August meeting or revert to the 25bps hikes now favoured by the Fed and the ECB.
Capital Daily Euro-zone PMIs, Spanish politics, and bond yields Euro-zone government bond yields have fallen further following the release of disappointing PMIs today. Given our pessimistic view of the economy, we suspect that they will generally end the year a... 24th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) Strong immigration and the turnaround in the housing market raise the chance that the economy will avoid recession but, with the Bank of Canada back in hiking mode, we still judge that GDP will... 24th July 2023 · 1 min read
