Capital Daily Taking stock of the plunge in bond yields US government bond yields have tumbled over the past day or so amid evidence of wage pressures easing in the February US Employment Report and concerns over banking sector risks. As thing stand, we... 10th March 2023 · 7 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa: cabinet shuffled, economy shaken This week’s cabinet reshuffle in South Africa is unlikely to be a magic bullet to fix the country’s deepening energy crisis. We think that further pain lies in store for the broader economy, as well... 10th March 2023 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Update Struggling rand may face more near-term pain The South African rand has weakened sharply against the US dollar so far this year, markedly underperforming other emerging market (EM) currencies. We expect domestic and global headwinds to drive a... 9th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Some lessons for equities from “stop-go” monetary policy The Fed is clearly trying to avoid a premature easing in financial conditions and a repeat of 1970s-style “stop-go” monetary policy. This Update discusses some lessons from that period for equity... 9th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Monetary policy and sovereign bond yields in DMs We think long-dated sovereign bond yields will fall over the remainder of this year in the UK and Canada, and to a lesser extent in Australia. 9th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update How King Cash may reign over equities & bonds The US may not have a monarchy, but cash has arguably become its proverbial king of investments. If history is a guide, it is a reign that is likely to feature equities underperforming bonds amid a... 9th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update We think the struggles for equities in India will resume We think MSCI’s India Index will fall over the next couple of quarters in local-currency terms, amid subdued domestic economic activity and a general deterioration in investors’ appetite for “risky”... 9th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Risky assets largely shrugging off “higher for longer” Most “risky” assets have taken a knock in the past month. But this mainly seems to reflect an adjustment in valuations to higher “risk-free” rates, rather than growing concerns about tighter policy... 8th March 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Humphrey-Hawkins turns into Helter-Skelter for money markets While the Fed is drawing closer to the end of its tightening cycle, today’s events suggest there may still be few more bumps in the road for financial markets. 7th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily China’s stock market has scope to shrug off slower growth target Even if economic growth in China this year fails to eclipse the modest 5% target announced at the National People’s Congress (NPC) on Sunday, we expect its stock market to continue to recover and... 6th March 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Equity risk premium suggests complacency creeping in Although recent economic data have surprised to the upside, we still think that economic growth in the US will falter later this year. In our view, indicators of the equity risk premium in the US... 3rd March 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Currency phoney war continues ahead of US payrolls & BoJ Currency markets have mostly gone sideways this week, with the US dollar set to end it a touch weaker against most other major currencies. With both activity and price data continuing to surprise to... 3rd March 2023 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily How is “higher for longer” playing out in the US stock market? Notwithstanding the partial recoveries today, the past month or so has seen a sell-off in both Treasuries and equities in which “rate sensitive” stock market sectors have underperformed. So long as... 3rd March 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update Two points on “higher for longer” and asset markets With much of the global economy holding up surprisingly well and inflation not coming down as quickly as expected, investors are weighing up the risk that policy rates remain elevated for much longer... 3rd March 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Three points on the latest rise in government bond yields Stronger-than-expected inflation and activity data have fuelled a further rebound in developed market (DM) government bond yields, posing upside risks to our policy rate forecasts. Even so, we think... 2nd March 2023 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Property returns to revive over the longer term The current economic downturn will mean that short-to-medium term property performance is under-par. But over a longer horizon, we expect real estate returns to reassert their traditional position... 2nd March 2023 · 3 mins read
