Global Markets Update We doubt upward pressures on the JGB yield will last The yield of 10-year Japanese government bonds may come closer to the new “just-in-case” cap of 1.0% in the coming months, but we doubt it will settle that high further ahead. 10th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We think oil’s muted impact on markets will continue Despite oil prices hitting new year-to-date highs, other factors seem to be dominating the effect of rising oil prices on equity, bond, and FX markets. Even if, as we expect, oil prices edge lower... 9th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Financial conditions still flagging recession risk Even though the financial strains that emerged after SVB’s collapse have dissipated, interest rate hikes have left overall financial conditions in major advanced economies close to their tightest... 9th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily A brighter future for banks may require one for the economy The share prices of US banks have recovered some ground since a low point in May, as concerns about further failures in the industry have abated; Treasury yields have rebounded; and the economy has... 8th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily More yield curve “disinversion”, perhaps, but not like that We think the 10-year/2-year Treasury yield spread will become less inverted over the next year or so, but doubt this will come primarily via a continued rise in the 10-year yield like we saw last week... 7th August 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect SNB intervention to continue to buoy the franc The appreciation in the Swiss franc this year has been largely at odds with moves in many of the factors which typically drive the currency. We believe this is mostly due to intervention from the... 7th August 2023 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Payrolls & ratings downgrade leave the dollar adrift With the mini-meltdown in US bond markets taking centre stage over recent days, the dollar had been on the front foot for much of the week until the softish non-farm payrolls report earlier today... 4th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily US payrolls and (the end of?) the bond market sell-off The US Employment Report for July adds support to our view that long-dated Treasury yields will fall over the rest of this year. 4th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Three thoughts on the US credit rating downgrade The US government losing another one of its “AAA” ratings after Fitch Ratings’ downgrade decision this week is more symbol than substance. But three key related points are worth highlighting. 4th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Soft landing tailwind for “risky” assets may fade We suspect the boost to “risky” assets from the resilience of the economy may have mostly run its course. 4th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update French equities may struggle to outperform again The French stock market’s strong showing since 2018 appears to have been built on solid ground. But French equities have stopped outperforming their German peers this year, and the bar is quite high... 3rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily BoE decision another reason to expect lower gilt yields Though investors appear to be increasingly moving towards our view of Bank Rate peaking at 5.50%, we think the levels priced into the market beyond this year – and, accordingly, expectations for gilt... 3rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update What the end of tightening cycles means for the US dollar As major central banks near the end of their tightening cycles, the latest evidence of US economic resilience suggests to us that the dollar is poised to appreciate over the next couple of quarters. 3rd August 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update The implications of El Niño for global markets We think El Niño poses downside risks to the prices of emerging market assets, in general. But even if the effect in aggregate wasn’t all that large, there are several vulnerable sectors where such an... 3rd August 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily US Treasuries have problems, but credit ratings aren’t one The US government losing another one of its “AAA” ratings after Fitch Ratings’ downgrade decision last night is unlikely to matter much in the near term, but three points are worth highlighting. 2nd August 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily “Risky” assets may face a harder road to further gains Some measures of market risk premia have become quite low, suggesting to us that the bar for further big gains in risky assets has risen. 1st August 2023 · 4 mins read
