Event Drop-In: How has bank turmoil affected the financial markets outlook? 4th April 2023, 3:00PM BST With the dust settling on the recent turmoil in US and European banks, economists from across our financial markets coverage assessed the damage to the outlook for bonds, equities and FX. Chief...
Capital Daily Assessing the contagion risk from US commercial property During the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), non-US investors’ ownership of US residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) was a key way in which they were exposed to problems in the US housing market... 29th March 2023 · 6 mins read
China Economic Outlook Reopening recovery to shift down a gear Much of the economic boost from China’s reopening has already happened. While there is still some upside to consumer and services activity, weakened balance sheets and limited policy support mean the... 29th March 2023 · 23 mins read
Capital Daily Surge in CMBS spreads may not have run its course The recent surge in the yield spreads of US BBB-rated commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) over Treasuries underscores the risks to US regional banks from their significant exposure to the... 28th March 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily European G-SIBs need a better RoE to justify a higher valuation While the shares of Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIBs) in Europe bounced today on the news that a buyer has been found for parts of the failed US lender, Silicon Valley Bank, their price... 27th March 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar continues to see-saw on banking sector turmoil The US dollar had spent much of the week on the back foot amid a growing belief that banking sector issues might prove a largely US-specific problem. But that narrative, and price action, has (again)... 24th March 2023 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily How the turmoil is playing out within the stock market We suspect some of the recent trends in the relative performance of equity market sectors will fade or even reverse, perhaps even if the current turmoil persists. 24th March 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update Credit spreads still have a long way to go before peaking There has been a rise in risk premia in the bond market since the start of the banking sector turmoil. But we think impending recessions will push corporate credit spreads up further from here. 24th March 2023 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update What to make of the banking turmoil & the dollar The ongoing struggles of the banking sector in the US and elsewhere has muddled the outlook for the dollar. But while we think the balance of probability has shifted against the greenback, we continue... 24th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA on a knife-edge With the minutes of the RBA's March meeting pointing to a slightly more dovish stance, there are growing risks to our forecast for continued tightening in April and May. We think the case for a pause... 24th March 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily What the Fed and BoE central bank meetings mean for markets With major central banks pressing ahead with rate hikes despite ongoing financial stability concerns, we think that the recent resilience of equity markets will prove to be short-lived even if, as we... 23rd March 2023 · 7 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Financial markets bruised, central banks hawkish Financial markets across Sub-Saharan Africa have struggled – and have underperformed their EM peers – since the global banking sector turmoil erupted. Amid broad risk-off sentiment, African sovereign... 23rd March 2023 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily Equity rally amid bond volatility seems complacent The recent resilience in US equities is at odds with the surge in volatility in Treasuries. While the macro outlook is especially uncertain at present, we find it hard to envisage a scenario in which... 22nd March 2023 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect equities in EMs to continue to struggle Even if the banking sector turmoil doesn’t grow into a broader economic crisis, we still think equities in emerging markets will struggle over the next couple of quarters in local-currency terms. 22nd March 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Equities stuck between a rock and a hard place Although recent strains in the banking sector mean that the economic outlook is especially uncertain, in our view equities are unlikely to perform particularly well, regardless of how things play out. 22nd March 2023 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack Vulnerabilities lurk in the banking sector Spill-overs from the turmoil in the global banking system to India have been limited so far, but the big unknown is whether difficulties will flare up at home. Bank problems can arise via multiple... 22nd March 2023 · 9 mins read
