Japan Chart Pack Governor Ueda to cull YCC as his first act Japan has escaped the recent banking turmoil in the US and Switzerland relatively unscathed. While banks face some risks arising from their lending exposure overseas, there are no signs of liquidity... 12th April 2023 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily Ueda-driven drop in the yen unlikely to last Amid a holiday-affected few days in financial markets, one move that stands out is the fall of the yen. But we doubt its weakness will last much longer. 11th April 2023 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Safe -haven currencies edge higher ahead of payrolls It has been another relatively subdued week in currency markets, but despite another batch of disappointing economic data out of the US and accompanying falls in US interest rate expectations, the... 6th April 2023 · 9 mins read
FX Markets Valuations Monitor Valuation gaps have narrowed for most currencies Improved economic fundamentals outside the US have coincided with the dollar’s sharp fall since last September, narrowing the greenback’s substantial overvaluation. But we still think that it remains... 6th April 2023 · 19 mins read
Asset Allocation Update UK stock market outperformance may not resume soon The UK stock market has been caught in the crossfire of recent sectoral trends in global equities, leading to a period of underperformance over the past month. Despite tentative signs of that going... 6th April 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The US stock market is not braced for a recession We anticipate that the S&P 500 will fall back later in 2023, largely because analysts are far from pricing in a recession in the US that we think is even more likely after the recent banking turmoil... 6th April 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We see weaker growth ending the rally in US equities The resilience of the S&P 500 over the past month or so makes some sense given the boost to valuations from lower “risk-free” interest rates. That said, we think that equity investors are... 4th April 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt higher oil prices will stop Treasury yields falling further Although the decision by OPEC+ members to cut oil production might push up oil prices further, we don’t think that will stop US Treasury yields falling further over the rest of the year. 3rd April 2023 · 6 mins read
China Chart Pack Uneven consumer recovery slowing down Consumer spending jumped during the first two months of the year as virus disruptions faded. The March retail sales data won’t be published for another couple of weeks. But the data we have so far... 3rd April 2023 · 11 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook We doubt that risky assets will remain so resilient Despite only being three months old, 2023 has already seen several macro narratives play out in markets. “Soft landing” optimism in January was followed by a “no landing” narrative in February which... 31st March 2023 · 21 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap US dollar edges lower even as banking concerns ease Despite making up some ground today, the dollar seems set to end the week somewhat lower against nearly all major currencies. Banking turmoil in the US and elsewhere appears to be receding (for now)... 31st March 2023 · 10 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Monetary policymakers in hawkish mode, debt in focus Central banks in South Africa, Kenya and Ghana all stepped up the pace of monetary tightening this week as concerns about inflation and currency weakness flared up. But we doubt that the rule of... 31st March 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Outlook Amid banking turmoil, outlook for “risky” assets seems bleak The recent turmoil in the global banking sector have sent ripples through financial markets. So far, a full-blown financial crisis doesn’t seem likely to us, although clearly any escalation would add... 31st March 2023 · 14 mins read
FX Markets Outlook Dollar is down but not (yet) out The dollar’s February rebound has been cut short by turmoil in the US regional banking sector, but we continue to think the greenback will make one final push higher as advanced economies fall into... 30th March 2023 · 16 mins read
Capital Daily Stubborn core inflation may be a headwind for euro-zone bonds Persistent core inflationary pressures will, in our view, keep euro-zone sovereign bonds under pressure this year, at least relative to those in other major developed market economies. 30th March 2023 · 6 mins read
