FX Markets Update Why we continue to think sterling will depreciate We doubt sterling’s strong run will continue; we still think that an economic downturn in the UK and other advanced economies will lead to renewed downward pressure on sterling later this year. 12th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily BoE gives little away, but we still expect lower gilt yields While we would not be surprised if the Bank of England raises rates by a bit more in the coming months, we think investors are underestimating the scope for rate cuts further ahead. We expect this to... 11th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Credit spreads still look too low to us With credit conditions tightening and, in our view, recessions looming in the US and other advanced economies, we think it is only a matter of time before corporate credit spreads widen. 9th May 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We still think Treasury yields and the S&P 500 will fall this year Despite today’s stronger-than-expected US non-farm payrolls report, we continue to think that the 10-year Treasury yield and S&P 500 will fall over the next couple of quarters. 5th May 2023 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Banking turmoil continues to hamstring the US dollar Despite a bumper week for economic data, currency markets remain in limbo. While the dollar regained some ground today after a(nother) stronger-than-expected US non-farm payrolls report, it has been... 5th May 2023 · 10 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Pound standing to attention for King’s Coronation You’d be forgiven for thinking that the pound has been caught up in the wave of Britishness ahead of the King’s Coronation this weekend. But instead the rise to a 12-month high of $1.26 has been... 5th May 2023 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect the euro to reverse course before long We think that the tailwinds supporting the rebound in the euro against the US dollar have largely run their course, and still forecast the EUR/USD rate to return to parity as advanced economies fall... 5th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update How US & E-Z bonds might fare as rate hikes conclude We forecast small further falls in the yields of long-dated US Treasuries and euro-zone sovereign bonds between now and the end of next year, as disinflation picks up steam and central banks turn more... 4th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Relative resilience of US stock market is on shaky ground The underperformance of the US stock market seen last year has generally paused so far in 2023, as returns have been propped up by mega-cap “growth” stocks. That may continue over the rest of the year... 4th May 2023 · 5 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: Will the BoE take rates above 4.5%? 1683813600 The market has finally come round to our long-standing view that Bank Rate will rise to 4.5%, with the Bank of England to likely to deliver another 25 basis point hike when it meets on 11th&
Capital Daily Some lessons from the RBA and RBNZ for global yield curves We don’t think central bank hawkishness in major developed markets would necessarily push long-term yields up by much. 2nd May 2023 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack 2023’s rally in US equities is looking a little thin The MSCI USA Index has not made much further headway on net in April so far. But it has at least held on to its strong gains from earlier in 2023, returning about 8% YTD. Part of that strength... 28th April 2023 · 13 mins read
Capital Daily YCC set to survive for a while yet: what next for JGBs and the yen With Yield Curve Control set to stay in place at least for the rest of this year, we now expect the yield of 10-year JGBs to settle close to the 50bp tolerance band ceiling. But given we predict... 28th April 2023 · 8 mins read
Asset Allocation Update More than pensions to the UK’s stock listings drought In our view, the role of UK pension funds in deterring firms from listing on the London Stock Exchange has been overstated of late. To the extent that higher valuations are the reason firms find a US... 28th April 2023 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly RBI will continue providing support to rupee The rupee has held up well so far this year and, while we think renewed weakening is likely over the coming months as the US dollar rebounds, the recent improvement in the external position, ample FX... 28th April 2023 · 4 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Power cuts ripping through South Africa’s economy Persistent and deepening electricity outages in South Africa are wreaking economic havoc. Almost half of generating capacity was offline this month, triggering severe “loadshedding”. Output in energy... 27th April 2023 · 12 mins read
