Asset Allocation Update

Will US equity underperformance last?

While some drivers of the US stock market’s recent underperformance are likely in our view to persist, we think that they will soon be outweighed by renewed enthusiasm about AI. And only when the...

3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read

China Economics Update

China stimulus: your questions answered

China’s recent stimulus announcements are still at the top of many investors’ minds, at least judging by the high level of client interest in the online briefing we ran on the topic yesterday. We’ve...

3rd October 2024 · 8 mins read

Capital Daily

What to make of markets & the Mideast escalation

While the latest escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran is worrying, our view remains that it would take a significant further widening of the war, including actual disruption to energy...

2nd October 2024 · 5 mins read

Event

Drop-In: The global macro and markets outlook – What you need to know

1728396000

The euro-zone has stalled, the US labour market is cooling and China has only belatedly announced stimulus measures.

Latin America Economics Update

Mexico and what to expect from President Sheinbaum

We held a Drop-In yesterday to discuss what investors should expect as Claudia Sheinbaum takes over the presidency in Mexico. A recording of the event can be found here. This Update answers some of...

2nd October 2024 · 6 mins read

Capital Daily

Oil spikes, but not yet a concern for central banks

Brent crude oil has jumped by around 4% to ~$74.5pb at the time of writing, following reports that Iran is preparing a ballistic missile strike against Israel. Much remains uncertain. A key issue – if...

1st October 2024 · 5 mins read

Asia Economics Update

Asia: key client questions answered

We recently held a series of Asia-focussed roundtable discussions with clients in London, covering an array of topics including the impact of Fed easing, the US election, global fracturing and China’s...

1st October 2024 · 6 mins read

Capital Daily

China vs Japan: a tale of two stock markets

We doubt China’s equities will continue to outperform Japan’s through the end of 2025, despite their recent divergence.

30th September 2024 · 4 mins read

Capital Daily

Fewer cuts may push US & EZ yields up & the EUR sideways

We don’t see compelling reasons for policymakers in the US or the euro-zone to lower policy rates as much as market pricing suggests, so we expect long-dated bond yields there to edge up before long...

27th September 2024 · 4 mins read

FX Markets Weekly Wrap

Muted PCE supports our view of an even weaker dollar

Today’s release of weaker-than-expected US PCE data for August led investors to revise down slightly their expectations for the fed funds rate, and the DXY index slipped as a result. This, alongside...

27th September 2024 · 5 mins read

Africa Economics Weekly

CBN surprise hike, Kenya’s turn to Abu Dhabi

The Central Bank of Nigeria’s surprise interest rate hike this week highlighted the greater progress that the MPC wants to see on the inflation front and also importantly its steadfast ambition to...

27th September 2024 · 5 mins read

Africa Chart Pack

Africa Chart Pack (Sep. 2024)

Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa from early next year. But the external environment will provide mixed fortunes, as falling...

27th September 2024 · 0 mins read

Capital Daily

What China stimulus and Fed cuts mean for EM stocks

Most EM equities have fared well over the past week or so amid encouraging signs from China, the first Fed rate cut and broadening EM easing cycles. We think these equities will continue to fare well...

26th September 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Economics Update

SNB likely to cut rates by at least another 50bp

While the SNB only cut the policy rate by 25bp today to 1.0%, the accompanying statement was very dovish and indicated that there are at least two more rate cuts on the way, probably in 25bp...

26th September 2024 · 3 mins read

FX Markets Outlook

Trump win a wild card for our weaker dollar forecast

Further out, our base case is that the combination of a generally benign global economic backdrop and a dovish Fed leads to some further US dollar weakness over the next six to twelve months. But...

26th September 2024 · 22 mins read