FX Markets Update Taking stock of our US dollar forecast While the global backdrop continues to favour the US dollar, it's rally has stalled in recent weeks and we think that, absent a major deterioration in risk sentiment, the greenback will struggle to... 19th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Raising our forecasts for the 10-year Treasury yield We still expect the 10-year Treasury yield to fall in the coming quarters. But we’ve revised up our projections for that yield from now to end of 2025, and now think it will reach its cyclical low in... 19th October 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily China’s economic momentum may help its struggling equities We think China’s improving economy may help stop the fall in the country’s stock markets, and see them outperform those of the US for a bit. 18th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Cyclically higher for shorter; structurally higher for longer We think equilibrium real policy rates in advanced economies will continue to rise over the next decade or so. That has profound implications for government bond yields and risky asset valuations. 17th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Event Drop-In: r* and the end of the ultra-low rates era 1698755400 What will a world of structurally higher interest rates look like? How will central bank behaviour change in the coming years? What will this mean for market returns?
Global Economics Focus Chapter 4: Financial market implications Higher real and nominal Treasury yields in 2030, relative to the past decade, are one reason why we expect investors to be demanding a greater real return from risky assets in 2030 than they are now. 17th October 2023 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily Could earnings give the S&P 500 a lift? We don’t expect a rise in earnings expectations to give the S&P 500 much of a near-term boost, but think the picture is more positive further ahead. 13th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Global risks and the outlook for EM dollar sovereign bonds We think the macroeconomic environment will continue to play the key role in the outlook for emerging markets (EM) dollar-denominated sovereign bonds this year and next. Despite country-specific risks... 13th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update EM large cap underperformance may end soon Large-capitalisation (large-cap) stocks in emerging markets (EMs) have markedly underperformed their smaller counterparts this year, sharply contrasting with the relative performance of large- and... 13th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Falling inflation may (eventually) weigh on UST yields We still think the Fed and investors are too pessimistic about inflation in the US returning to target. We expect a continued fall in both core and headline inflation to push down US Treasury yields... 12th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update How demand and supply affect Treasury term premia Estimates suggest that the term premium of US 10-year Treasuries has bounced back to positive territory. We think that this can be at least partly explained by demand and supply factors. And we... 12th October 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Valuations Monitor FX Valuations Monitor (Q4 2023) The US dollar has risen against most currencies since the start of the year, while most of our estimates of the greenback’s “fair value” are little unchanged. Taken together, this leaves the dollar... 12th October 2023 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Update Euro-zone equities may continue to underperform the US We think euro-zone equities’ recent run of underperformance relative to those in the US will extend over the next couple of years, as bond yields fall back and enthusiasm around “AI” continues to grow... 12th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Rally in Treasuries may not keep “riskier” assets rising The fall in Treasury yields since last Friday has pushed corporate bond yields down and equities up in the US. But while we think that Treasuries will keep rallying, we suspect that corporate bonds... 11th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily “Higher for longer” Fed funds rate or term premia? We expect a continued paring back of US interest rate expectations to keep pushing long-dated Treasury yields down in coming quarters. But higher term premia may limit those falls in yields. 10th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Australia and New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are likely to retain their... 10th October 2023 · 1 min read
