Asset Allocation Update Taking stock of volatility and risk premia Measures of cross-asset volatility and risk premia suggest that investors are increasingly discounting a fairly rosy market environment over the coming months. This leaves them at risk of... 15th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update A bright outlook for EM bonds, but not just yet We think that bonds in Emerging Markets (EMs) will struggle in the next couple of months. Further ahead, though, we expect their yields to fall, as both “risk-free” rates and spreads drop. In view of... 15th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Biggest post-CPI yield fall in a year may be just the start While past dips in the 10-year Treasury yield since inflation peaked proved to be short lived, we think that yield will continue to fall from here. 14th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Climate Economics Focus Making sense of the ESG bond premium A lack of appropriate regulation may be one reason why ESG bond issuance has slowed over recent years, and why the premium that investors are willing to pay for ESG bonds over conventional bonds has... 14th November 2023 · 15 mins read
Capital Daily Fiscal versus monetary policy and the outlook for Treasuries Although yesterday’s poorly digested auction of 30Y Treasuries served as a reminder that the outlook for fiscal policy has the potential to undermine US long-dated government bonds, we still think... 10th November 2023 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Powell closes the door on recent dollar weakness In an otherwise quiet week, the greenback seems set to close higher against most major currencies, reversing much of its decline following the October payrolls data release. We think the dollar’s rise... 10th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Economic turbulence could still knock “risky” assets off course Even though we expect the S&P 500 to end 2024 at a much higher level than it is now, we doubt it will build on its recent gains over the coming months given the outlook for the economy. 10th November 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Rebound in “carry” currencies may prove short-lived High carry EM currencies have rallied as US bond yields have fallen back and risk sentiment has improved, but we still expect most of these currencies to come under renewed pressure in the coming... 9th November 2023 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily What next for the greenback? While the US dollar has bounced back a bit this week, its struggles over the past month or so are in some ways similar to the lead up to its sharp fall in Q4 of last year. But we think a comparable... 9th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Answering your questions about the effects of R* on markets Following the release of our new analysis on real equilibrium interest rates (R*) last month, we held an online Drop-In last week and in-person Roundtable events with clients yesterday to discuss our... 9th November 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update Déjà vu all over again for the dollar? The US dollar’s struggles over the past month or so are reminiscent of the lead up to its sharp fall in Q4 of last year, but a similar slide over the coming months looks unlikely. Instead, we continue... 9th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Nov. 2023) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. GDP growth appears to have all but stalled in Q3 but that was after a very strong first half. There... 9th November 2023 · 1 min read
Capital Daily ‘Magnificent 7’ may keep outperforming for a while Given our pessimistic view of the economy in the US, we think that equities there will fare quite poorly in the near term. But the biggest components of the S&P 500 might hold up better. 8th November 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Shifting correlations may also be driving Treasury term premia One factor that may have contributed to higher Treasury term premia, as posited recently by the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee in connection with the Quarterly Refunding, is a shift in the... 7th November 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily RBA/Fed divergence may not be enough to pry 10y yields apart Despite some differences in the monetary policy outlooks for Australia and the US, we doubt 10-year yields in the two economies will diverge much. 7th November 2023 · 5 mins read
