Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (July 2023) This new Returns Monitor has been redesigned in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use the menu at the top... 11th July 2023 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 11th July 2023 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Two intriguing developments within the latest rout in bonds There were two intriguing developments in bond markets last week, as the 10-year Treasury yield surged above 4% to its highest level since March. The first was a similar-sized increase in the 10-year... 10th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 10th July 2023 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Labour market data send markets there and back again Signs the US labour market is beginning to loosen support our view that bond yields and equities could fall further, while the greenback could rally. 7th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Canada & ANZ bonds no longer look like such outliers We still think the yields of long-dated sovereign bonds in Canada, Australia and New Zealand will fall by the end of this year, but no longer expect them to do so by much more than the yields of bonds... 7th July 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily UK recession may stem gilt market bleeding We still think a recession is on the way in the UK, and that it will bring gilt yields back down. 6th July 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update We think the Brazilian real’s rally will reverse soon We expect the Brazilian real to reverse its gains against the US dollar by the end of the year as Brazil’s central bank eases policy and risk sentiment deteriorates. We are also sending this FX... 6th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Comparing the Fed’s new FCI to our own The Fed’s new FCI does a better job of illustrating the tightness of US financial conditions than various other measures. But our own FCI has had a better record at capturing turning points in real... 6th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The relative outlook for EM & US bonds Although we expect emerging market (EM) policy rates to fall vis-a-vis the US this year, we don’t expect EM local-currency sovereign bonds to outperform US Treasuries until global growth picks up over... 5th July 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Equity valuations may eventually get more stretched The valuations of equities are, in general, still a long way from being unprecedently high compared to those of government bonds. 5th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update US corporate bond spreads may rise again Corporate credit spreads have fallen back in the US over the past couple of weeks, while they have risen in the euro-zone and the UK. However, given our pessimistic view of the US economy, we suspect... 5th July 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Valuations may become a headwind for US equities US stock markets’ gains in recent months, both in absolute terms and relative to their European peers, owe a lot to their rising valuations. But equities in the US are now arguably quite highly valued... 3rd July 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar remains rangebound as FX market calm persists The US dollar has continued to tread water against most major currencies this week. With G10 central bankers generally sticking to their hawkish messages at the ECB’s Sintra conference and few major... 30th June 2023 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Making sense of asset flows and the yen Reconciling the slide in Japan’s currency with big flows into its stock market from abroad and a perception that the appeal of foreign bonds to Japanese investors has waned in response to high hedging... 30th June 2023 · 4 mins read
