FX Markets Outlook US dollar strength likely to wane a bit further in 2024 The US dollar has reversed around half of the gains it made from mid-July to end-October amid a sharp fall in US Treasury yields and a general compression of risk premia across markets, leaving the... 13th December 2023 · 23 mins read
Capital Daily We still see scope for further falls in bond yields While US inflation for November was almost exactly as the analysts’ consensus had predicted, the yields of long-dated government bonds still rose a bit on the news in most places. But we continue to... 12th December 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Focus The USD: not the commodity currency you’re looking for The US dollar and the prices of major commodities, in aggregate, have often risen and fallen in tandem since 2021, in contrast to their strong inverse relationship for much of the past two decades... 12th December 2023 · 16 mins read
Capital Daily “Goldilocks” markets may eventually benefit gold too While the gold price has retreated over the past week or so, we think it is set for a renewed rally next year as the Fed cuts interest rates and long-term real yields fall back further. 11th December 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Outlook Bond rally may have a bit further to run We think the rally in developed market government bonds will continue for a while yet, as some major central banks, including the Fed, ultimately cut by more than investors seem to expect. But we... 11th December 2023 · 14 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar bounces back ahead of key central bank week The greenback has rebounded this week on the back of another batch of robust data out of the US economy, including today’s non-farm payrolls report. That stands in sharp contrast to the continued... 8th December 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Yields in the US and Japan may diverge The global bond rally faced a setback today after the US employment report was released. But we think that yields will resume their downward march before long in most places, including the US. One... 8th December 2023 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Election manoeuvres, hawkish RBI, Q1 Outlook The surge in the Sensex this week - to a fresh record high today - following the announcement of the BJP’s victories in three state elections is perhaps an indication that investors are confident that... 8th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Can anything keep the US dollar down for good? We expect the US dollar’s resilience to fade over the next year or so, and forecast it to weaken against most major currencies. 7th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We think US equities will keep shining the brightest As the year draws to a close, this note looks back at the recent performance of stock markets across the world and lays out our view of what might happen next year. In short, US equities have largely... 7th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update How the timing of rate cuts could affect bond yields We think that sovereign bond yields in most major economies will generally reach their troughs around the same time over the next year or so. But with the Bank of Japan seemingly set to buck the trend... 7th December 2023 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Goldilocks markets still likely to face a few potholes While government bond yields continue to plunge and the main euro-zone equity index has risen to a new high, the rally in US equities has stalled over recent days and the dollar recovered some ground... 6th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of latest sector performance in the S&P 500 Although the relative performance of the three “big-tech” sectors of the S&P 500 has underwhelmed recently, we suspect that they will be at, or near, the front of the pack again in 2024. 5th December 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Falling Treasury yields may provide more respite for REITs Although we expect US equity office REITs to benefit further from falling long-dated Treasury yields, we continue to think that their long-run prospects are blighted by a structural reduction in... 4th December 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update The Treasury yield curve could “disinvert” next year We expect the Treasury yield curve to “disinvert” in 2024, as we think the Fed will cut rates by more than investors expect and term premia will remain at least as high as they are now. 4th December 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily How German and Swiss bond yields may measure up Although the spread between the 10-year German and Swiss government bond yields has widened significantly over the past couple of years, we think it will stay close to this level for a long while yet. 4th December 2023 · 4 mins read
