FX Markets Update We expect SNB intervention to continue to buoy the franc The appreciation in the Swiss franc this year has been largely at odds with moves in many of the factors which typically drive the currency. We believe this is mostly due to intervention from the... 7th August 2023 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Payrolls & ratings downgrade leave the dollar adrift With the mini-meltdown in US bond markets taking centre stage over recent days, the dollar had been on the front foot for much of the week until the softish non-farm payrolls report earlier today... 4th August 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily US payrolls and (the end of?) the bond market sell-off The US Employment Report for July adds support to our view that long-dated Treasury yields will fall over the rest of this year. 4th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Three thoughts on the US credit rating downgrade The US government losing another one of its “AAA” ratings after Fitch Ratings’ downgrade decision this week is more symbol than substance. But three key related points are worth highlighting. 4th August 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Soft landing tailwind for “risky” assets may fade We suspect the boost to “risky” assets from the resilience of the economy may have mostly run its course. 4th August 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update French equities may struggle to outperform again The French stock market’s strong showing since 2018 appears to have been built on solid ground. But French equities have stopped outperforming their German peers this year, and the bar is quite high... 3rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily BoE decision another reason to expect lower gilt yields Though investors appear to be increasingly moving towards our view of Bank Rate peaking at 5.50%, we think the levels priced into the market beyond this year – and, accordingly, expectations for gilt... 3rd August 2023 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Update What the end of tightening cycles means for the US dollar As major central banks near the end of their tightening cycles, the latest evidence of US economic resilience suggests to us that the dollar is poised to appreciate over the next couple of quarters. 3rd August 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update The implications of El Niño for global markets We think El Niño poses downside risks to the prices of emerging market assets, in general. But even if the effect in aggregate wasn’t all that large, there are several vulnerable sectors where such an... 3rd August 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily US Treasuries have problems, but credit ratings aren’t one The US government losing another one of its “AAA” ratings after Fitch Ratings’ downgrade decision last night is unlikely to matter much in the near term, but three points are worth highlighting. 2nd August 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily “Risky” assets may face a harder road to further gains Some measures of market risk premia have become quite low, suggesting to us that the bar for further big gains in risky assets has risen. 1st August 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily EZ bond yields may fall back after one last ECB hike While we suspect that sticky core inflation in the euro-zone will mean “higher for longer” interest rates there, we think that the ECB will eventually deliver more rate cuts than currently priced into... 31st July 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack FX Markets Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) The dollar remains broadly unchanged on the year so far, but we continue to think that it (and the yen) will rally over the second half of the year as the long-anticipated recessions finally takes... 31st July 2023 · 0 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap End of YCC: keep calm and "carry" on The Fed’s emphasis on data dependency amid even more evidence of resilience in the US economy pushed US Treasury yields up and the greenback higher against most major G10 currencies this week. Taken... 28th July 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily RIP YCC: What next for Japanese and global markets? The Bank of Japan seems to have effectively ended yield curve control without making a big splash in financial markets, but we wouldn’t rule out further effects – on Japan’s markets and those around... 28th July 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Asset Allocation Chart Pack (Jul. 2023) This new Chart Pack has been designed to replace our Chart Book in response to client feedback to make our insights more accessible, and with more options to incorporate them into your workflow. Use... 28th July 2023 · 1 min read
