FX Markets Weekly Wrap The stalemate in currency markets continues After a strong start to the year, the US dollar seems set to end the week broadly unchanged against most currencies, as inflation data releases out of the US this week failed to generate much of a... 12th January 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update LatAm currencies and equities may fare poorly this year We think that most major currencies in Latin American will fall against the US dollar this year. As a result, the relatively poor returns that we expect from equities in the region in local-currency... 12th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What Taiwan’s election could mean for markets This Update discusses how we think Taiwan’s election this weekend – which could be another flashpoint in Taiwan-China relations – might affect global equity markets, in aggregate and across some key... 12th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Weakness in US asset prices unlikely to persist We wouldn’t be surprised if US bonds and equities fell a bit further in the near term. But, in our view, the Fed remains on track to start easing in March, pointing to renewed gains in US asset prices... 11th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Could it finally be Chinese equities’ year? We still think that China’s equities could fare well relative to others in the near term, but also that their longer-run prognosis is fairly bleak. 10th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Is the future really brighter for the US office sector? A continued pull-back in the spreads of US private-label commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) since the start of 2024, at a time when those of US high-yield corporate bonds have edged up (see... 9th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Corporate bonds might keep struggling a bit Despite bouncing back a bit in recent days, the spreads of corporate bonds remain near their lowest levels in two years, making them vulnerable to a deterioration in economic conditions. 8th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We see 2024 ending much better than it started for asset markets Although bonds and equities have started the year on the back foot, which may continue in the near term, we think they’ll fare better over the year as a whole. We project especially large gains for... 8th January 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap USD strikes back as goldilocks hopes take a hit The dollar’s strong start to 2024 has partly reversed today as the surprisingly weak US ISM non-manufacturing survey has more than offset another robust US non-farm payrolls report. Even so, the... 5th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of mixed messages on the US labour market Today’s plunge in the employment component of the US ISM services survey more than took the shine off a slightly stronger than expected US Employment Report. In doing so, it appears to have called at... 5th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japanese stocks will continue to underperform As we had anticipated, the outperformance of the Topix against the S&P 500 has unraveled as the yen has strengthened against the dollar. And with Japanese manufacturing losing ground abroad and... 5th January 2024 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of valuations in currency markets While we estimate the US dollar remains only somewhat above “fair value”, the valuations of some other major currencies are at extreme levels. For these currencies – notably the Mexican peso and Czech... 4th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily 2024 could be a better year for the yen than the renminbi We expect the Japanese yen to make larger gains this year than the Chinese renminbi. 4th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Equities Update Chinese equities may keep trailing Indian ones While equities in China might make up some lost ground over the next few months relative to those in India, we suspect they’ll underperform over the longer term. In view of the wider interest, we are... 4th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of markets’ rocky start to 2024 With most major bond and equity markets on track for a second down day to start the new year, it’s fair to say that financial markets have started 2024 with something of a mild hangover. While reading... 3rd January 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Equities may outshine bond markets in 2024 Both bond and equity markets have started the year on the back foot. But, while a pause after the rapid rally in most asset prices over the last two months of 2023 would not be surprising, we think... 2nd January 2024 · 4 mins read
