China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) China’s economy has regained some strength recently. We expect this to continue over the coming months, on the back of support from fiscal policy and a further pick-up in household spending. But with... 31st January 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Panama to lose its shine amid worsening growth outlook Panama’s time as a Latin American growth star is set to come to an end this year. This will have a knock-on effect on the government’s revenues and means that the public debt ratio is set to rise... 31st January 2024 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack FX Markets Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) After its sharp fall at the end of 2023, the US dollar has risen against most major currencies so far this year. Interest rate expectations have rebounded a bit in the US and in most places outside... 30th January 2024 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Asset Allocation Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Our Asset Allocation Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We expect “safe” assets to rally a bit more over the next couple of years, largely... 30th January 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily How Treasury supply (and demand) might affect yields The US Treasury’s latest borrowing estimates pushed long-dated yields down, and the Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) on Wednesday may add to positive sentiment. But we think that a poor fiscal... 30th January 2024 · 4 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Global Markets Chart Pack (Jan. 2024) Our Global Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We think that the Fed and several other DM central banks will deliver more policy rate cuts... 30th January 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily The best days for US IG corporate bonds may soon be over We think the best days for US investment-grade (IG) corporate bonds will soon be over. 29th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update With cuts almost in sight, we still see scope for DM yields to fall We think the recent falls in long-dated government bond yields across developed market (DM) economies will extend over the remainder of this year, as central banks generally cut by more than investors... 29th January 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rally takes a breather ahead of Fed and key US data The US dollar seems set to remain within a tight range against most major currencies this week. At face value, the stronger-than-expected GDP data out of the US might point to a return to “higher for... 26th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily US economy not threatening to prick a stock market bubble Similar to the late 1990s, we think the economic backdrop in the US won’t stand in the way of a bubble inflating in the S&P 500. But unlike then, we doubt it will help the dollar much. 26th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Will energy equities ever recover? The stock prices of companies in the energy sector (mostly oil & gas firms) have largely underperformed the rest of the stock market recently, and we doubt they’ll do much better in the foreseeable... 26th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update China’s tech sector could continue to do well We think the “tech” sectors of China’s stock market are the best prospects to lead a continued rebound in it, even if we doubt they’ll fare as well as their global tech peers over the next couple of... 26th January 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Focus Would a US equity bubble coincide with a stronger dollar (again)? We think the current backdrop is not as favourable for the greenback as the one that prevailed during the dot com era, so we doubt the bubble in US equities we expect would be accompanied by renewed... 25th January 2024 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the ECB market fallout While the dovish reaction to today’s ECB meeting came as a bit of a surprise, we continue to think that the direction of travel for Bund yields – and most sovereign bond yields – will be down this... 25th January 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Latin American equities may remain laggards While we expect equities around the world to rebound – as a stock market bubble inflates on the back of growing hype around AI – we suspect that Latin American stock markets will keep lagging. 24th January 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Would BoJ rate hikes matter for Japan’s bond market? Although the Bank of Japan (BoJ) stood its ground at its meeting today, we still expect it to hike its policy rate before long; that, we think, could contribute to a higher 10-year JGB yield. 23rd January 2024 · 5 mins read
