Capital Daily EM bonds may underperform despite early easing cycles Emerging market (EM) easing cycles are underway in earnest even as the first Fed cut remains a while away. We think this easing will help to drive EM local-currency (LC) government bond yields lower... 7th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update US stock market patterns and the economic outlook Recent patterns in the US stock market are sending mixed signals about the extent to which investors are braced for an economic downturn. Our own view is that equities will struggle to make more... 7th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Event Drop-In: Unpacking the Fed, ECB and Bank of England September decisions 1695304800 Will the FOMC’s September meeting confirm that the Fed is done with tightening? Will the ECB and Bank of England take rates higher?
Event MENA Drop-In: Can Egypt get its IMF deal back on track? 1694599200 Reports are swirling of yet more delay to the latest review of Egypt’s IMF deal, the central bank is preparing to meet in a pressurised market environment and speculation about a sovereign default
Capital Daily Weighing up the prospects for DM bond yields The worsening economic growth backdrop suggests to us that interest rate expectations for cyclically sensitive developed market (DM) economies are too high. We expect them to fall and drag bond yields... 6th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Japan’s equities may step down from the spotlight soon We doubt the strong gains in Japan’s equity market this year mark the start of a significant reversal of its decades-long underperformance; we expect it to lag the US market over the next couple of... 5th September 2023 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Another false dawn for China’s markets? New measures to support China’s struggling property sector seem to have sparked some renewed optimism in the country’s financial markets. We think there are three points to note. 4th September 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Soft payrolls can’t keep the dollar down for long A run of soft US labour market data has left the dollar on track to end the week slightly lower against most major currencies, threatening to break the DXY index’s six-week winning streak despite a... 1st September 2023 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily Higher for (only a bit) longer? Despite today’s rebound, the general fall in Treasury yields over the past week against a backdrop of mixed economic data suggests investors could be starting to come round to our view that price... 1st September 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update AUD & NZD likely to remain under pressure The cyclically-sensitive antipodean currencies have had a tough year so far, and a fair bit of bad news already appears priced in to both the aussie and the kiwi. Nonetheless, we don’t think their... 1st September 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack FX Markets Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our FX Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The dollar has rebounded in August but remains broadly unchanged on the year so far. We... 31st August 2023 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Are Chinese AI stocks about to take off? We think China’s AI-related stocks may outperform their US counterparts over the rest of this year. But their longer-term prospects look less upbeat, to us. 31st August 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Asset Allocation Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our Asset Allocation Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Although we’re growing less convinced by the idea that the US economy will tip into... 31st August 2023 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Global Markets Chart Pack (Aug. 2023) Our Global Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Growth in most advanced economies will disappoint later this year, putting pressure on... 31st August 2023 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is there much scope for the S&P 500 to build on its gains? We think there is ample scope for the US stock market to perform strongly in 2024 and 2025. Admittedly, this year’s rally in the S&P 500 hasn’t had much to do with expectations of faster growth in... 31st August 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Strong inflation may limit downside for EZ bond yields Stronger-than-expected inflation data from Germany and Spain today add to the uncertainty surrounding the near-term path of ECB policy. On balance, we think that the ECB will raise rates once more in... 30th August 2023 · 4 mins read
