FX Markets Weekly Wrap Calm in FX markets lowers the bar for further dollar strength The dollar has remained roughly unchanged against most major currencies over the past two weeks. Given that our expectations for upcoming data releases and central bank meetings – notably, nonfarm... 1st March 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Are more widows in the making? Today’s rise in the 2-year Japanese government bond yield to its new highest level since 2011 raises the question of whether this is the start of a far bigger sell-off in the bond market, or just... 1st March 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We see falling PCE inflation weighing on Treasury yields January US PCE inflation is in line with our view that the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation will return to target by mid-year, allowing policymakers to cut rates further than investors seem to... 29th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Asset Allocation Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) Our Asset Allocation Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Most 'risky' assets fared well this month, with resilient economic activity helping to... 29th February 2024 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) Despite renewed inflation concerns pushing interest rate expectations and gilt yields higher, our forecast that CPI inflation will fall below 1.0% later this year makes us think that the markets are... 29th February 2024 · 1 min read
FX Markets Chart Pack FX Markets Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) The US dollar has made further gains against most major currencies over the past month or so. Interest rate expectations have edged higher in the US and in most places outside Asia, weighing... 28th February 2024 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Global Markets Chart Pack (Feb. 2024) Our Global Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We think the Fed and most other DM central banks will deliver a bit more policy rate cuts... 28th February 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily RBNZ on hold, a positive signal for bond markets? The RBNZ’s decision to keep its policy rate on hold today illustrates how the bar for further rate hikes has become increasingly high for most central banks, even in the face of upside surprises to... 28th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We think European equities will keep playing catch-up We expect strong returns from European equities in the next couple of years, but we think they will continue to underperform those in the US. 28th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Revising up slightly our 10-year Treasury yield forecast We are revising up our end-2024 and end-2025 forecasts for the 10-year Treasury yield by 25bp, to 4%. This reflects recent changes to our projections for the federal funds rate. Nonetheless, our new... 28th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What is behind the narrow equity rally? While enthusiasm over AI probably explains much of the “Magnificent Seven’s” outperformance in the US, the outperformance of the largest stocks in other markets is indicative of a broader shift in... 27th February 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily EM Asian equities’ comeback may be just the start Equities in Emerging Asia have outperformed those elsewhere in recent weeks, and we think that they’ll keep doing well during the rest of the year. 26th February 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Good mood in non-US equities may continue to build up While we think that American exceptionalism in stock markets will continue this year as a bubble fuelled by enthusiasm around AI keeps inflating, we expect equities in other developed markets (DM) to... 23rd February 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap US dollar struggles amid “risk on” mood in broader markets The tailwind of US equity outperformance appears to be fading for the greenback, as the DXY Index looks set to post its first weekly fall in 2024. A pullback after such a streak isn’t all that... 23rd February 2024 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Is the plunge in imports the canary in the coalmine? Given that GDP has already contracted for two consecutive quarters, the plunge in imports in January and the fall in the manufacturing PMI to the lowest level since 2020 in February hardly instill... 23rd February 2024 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily How vulnerable are bonds and stocks to a Trump 2.0? The recent back-up in long-term Treasury yields, reflecting concerns that inflation isn’t coming down fast enough to prompt the Fed to cut rates in the near future, raises the question of how much... 22nd February 2024 · 5 mins read
