Global Markets Outlook Bonds & stocks may rally as "higher for longer" unravels We think the “higher-for-longer” narrative that has taken hold in the market won’t last through 2024. We suspect that central banks will generally cut faster than investors seem to expect and that, as... 28th September 2023 · 14 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Sep. 2023) Our China Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. China’s economy is regaining some momentum after stalling during the summer. A step up in policy... 28th September 2023 · 1 min read
Capital Daily We doubt long-dated USTs will keep underperforming 10Y Treasuries have underperformed 2Y Treasuries over recent months, bucking the usual pattern after the final Fed hike (if, as we think, the final hike was in July). But we think the stage is now set... 27th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Sep. 23) Strong immigration and the resilience of the housing market raise the chance that the economy will avoid recession but, with the Bank of Canada keeping further rate hikes on the table, we still judge... 27th September 2023 · 1 min read
Capital Daily How we see AI playing out in stock markets We think that investors’ enthusiasm for artificial intelligence (AI) will grow again next year and inflate a bubble in stock markets. This is just one of the many consequences that AI will have on the... 26th September 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Are markets pricing in enough bad news on Europe? Another set of downbeat business surveys out of the euro-zone and an increasingly cautious tone from ECB officials have put the EUR/USD rate under renewed pressure. But more broadly market... 25th September 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap The rally in the US dollar appears to be losing steam Amid the flurry of central bank announcements, the Fed doubling down on “higher for longer” proved to be enough for the greenback to eke out small gains against most other currencies, taking the DXY... 22nd September 2023 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update Why the 10-year Treasury yield could yet fall back significantly Although the 10-year Treasury yield rose further to a post-Global-Financial-Crisis high of ~4.5% in the wake of this week’s FOMC meeting, we continue to forecast that it will drop back to 3.75% by the... 22nd September 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of the European G10 currencies With most European G10 central banks now at, or very close to, the ends of their tightening cycles, this note examines where the European G10 currencies stand and how we see the outlook for the main... 22nd September 2023 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What rate hikes in Japan could mean for global markets We now expect the Bank of Japan to hike its policy rate – for the first time in sixteen years – next January. While we think global markets are generally braced for such an event, there’s a clear risk... 22nd September 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update How DM bonds might fare as easing cycles gather pace We expect long-dated government bond yields in most developed market economies to fall over the remainder of this year and next, as central banks shift focus to monetary easing. But, in some cases, we... 21st September 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The relative outlook for US and UK markets We think that both the Fed and the BoE are finished hiking interest rates and will cut by more than investors are discounting over the next couple of years. We also expect the US and UK economies to... 21st September 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt hawkish rhetoric will stop yields from falling Despite the hawkish rhetoric from central bankers on both sides of the Atlantic, we still expect most long-dated government bond yields in developed markets to fall over the next couple of years. 21st September 2023 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update We think high carry currencies will reverse course Although high “carry” emerging market (EM) currencies have held on to most of their gains during the greenback’s recent rally, we still think the outperformance of these currencies is likely to... 21st September 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We still expect a Fed-fuelled Treasury rally We remain of the view that investors are overestimating how high the federal funds rate will be over the next couple of years, and that Treasury yields will fall as a result. 20th September 2023 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Oil likely to remain a sideshow for financial markets The recent rally in oil prices has had only a limited impact on bond and equity markets so far. And we doubt that this will change anytime soon, given our view that the rally will not last much longer... 19th September 2023 · 5 mins read
