Asset Allocation Update

Some global market implications of BoJ tightening

Japan’s exit from negative interest rates could place some upward pressure on bond term premia elsewhere, but we don’t think it will prove too disruptive to markets even if the BoJ ultimately hikes a...

22nd March 2024 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

The doves have it – what next for markets?

This week’s flurry of central bank meeting points to growing confidence among policymakers in most major economies that inflation is on track back to target. That supports our view that long-term...

21st March 2024 · 5 mins read

FX Markets Update

Three key points on the yen’s latest fall

In the wake of this week’s FOMC and BoJ policy announcements we are revising our forecast for the Japanese yen. While we still expect the Japanese yen to rebound over the course of 2024, we now...

21st March 2024 · 4 mins read

FX Markets Update

A further rise in the US dollar looks unlikely to us

The tailwinds that have underpinned the rebound in the dollar this year seem, to us, to have run their course. While we wouldn’t be surprised if the dollar stayed firm over the coming months, we still...

21st March 2024 · 4 mins read

DM Valuations Monitor

Global Markets Valuations Monitor (March 2024)

The valuations of “risky” assets have kept rising so far this year, even as “safe” asset yields have rebounded. While risky asset valuations are quite high by past standards, we doubt this will...

21st March 2024 · 1 min read

Capital Daily

How the Fed might – or might not – affect the markets

Our view that Treasury yields will fall back a bit and that the US dollar will generally weaken by the end of the year rests on the assumption that the Fed will deliver more rate cuts than currently...

20th March 2024 · 5 mins read

Capital Economics named most accurate equities market forecaster

Event

Drop-In: Global Markets Outlook – What to expect from equities, bonds and FX markets

1713362400

Our markets team recently held an online briefing all about how we expect global equities, bonds, and currencies to perform through the end of this year and into 2025.

Global Markets Update

Credit spreads during equity bubbles: how low, how long?

Credit spreads aren’t bound to fall further if a bubble continues to inflate in the stock market, judging by what happened in the US in the second half of the 1990s.

19th March 2024 · 5 mins read

Capital Daily

Will the equity risk premium disappear?

Given our view that a stock market bubble will inflate in the US, we wouldn’t be surprised to see the equity risk premium (ERP) shrinking further in the near term. This might even go as far as the...

18th March 2024 · 5 mins read

Event

EM Drop-In: After the big vote – India’s macro and markets outlook

1712822400

In a big year for elections, this is the biggest.

Event

Drop-In: China equities outlook – Valuations, earnings, fracturing

1712217600

It's been a tough few years for China's stock market, which has been, at times, one of the worst performers in the world.

Emerging Markets Economics Update

Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Mar. 2024)

Capital inflows into EMs have picked up in recent weeks on the back of an improvement in risk appetite. This may set the tone for the rest of the year, particularly once the Fed begins to cut interest...

18th March 2024 · 2 mins read

Capital Daily

The renminbi looks weak and we think it will rally

We think that, despite ongoing PBOC intervention to prop it up, the valuation of the renminbi looks very weak on a range of fundamental metrics. As such, we wouldn’t be surprised if it rose over time...

15th March 2024 · 5 mins read

FX Markets Weekly Wrap

Inflation uncertainty could keep the dollar stronger for longer

Stronger-than-expected CPI and PPI data out of the US were the key catalysts for the greenback’s rebound this week, as investors continued to pare back their expectations for the Fed to cut its policy...

15th March 2024 · 5 mins read