Global Economics Focus Chapter 4: Financial market implications Higher real and nominal Treasury yields in 2030, relative to the past decade, are one reason why we expect investors to be demanding a greater real return from risky assets in 2030 than they are now. 17th October 2023 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily Could earnings give the S&P 500 a lift? We don’t expect a rise in earnings expectations to give the S&P 500 much of a near-term boost, but think the picture is more positive further ahead. 13th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Global risks and the outlook for EM dollar sovereign bonds We think the macroeconomic environment will continue to play the key role in the outlook for emerging markets (EM) dollar-denominated sovereign bonds this year and next. Despite country-specific risks... 13th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update EM large cap underperformance may end soon Large-capitalisation (large-cap) stocks in emerging markets (EMs) have markedly underperformed their smaller counterparts this year, sharply contrasting with the relative performance of large- and... 13th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Falling inflation may (eventually) weigh on UST yields We still think the Fed and investors are too pessimistic about inflation in the US returning to target. We expect a continued fall in both core and headline inflation to push down US Treasury yields... 12th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update How demand and supply affect Treasury term premia Estimates suggest that the term premium of US 10-year Treasuries has bounced back to positive territory. We think that this can be at least partly explained by demand and supply factors. And we... 12th October 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Valuations Monitor FX Valuations Monitor (Q4 2023) The US dollar has risen against most currencies since the start of the year, while most of our estimates of the greenback’s “fair value” are little unchanged. Taken together, this leaves the dollar... 12th October 2023 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Update Euro-zone equities may continue to underperform the US We think euro-zone equities’ recent run of underperformance relative to those in the US will extend over the next couple of years, as bond yields fall back and enthusiasm around “AI” continues to grow... 12th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Rally in Treasuries may not keep “riskier” assets rising The fall in Treasury yields since last Friday has pushed corporate bond yields down and equities up in the US. But while we think that Treasuries will keep rallying, we suspect that corporate bonds... 11th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily “Higher for longer” Fed funds rate or term premia? We expect a continued paring back of US interest rate expectations to keep pushing long-dated Treasury yields down in coming quarters. But higher term premia may limit those falls in yields. 10th October 2023 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Australia and New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Central banks in both Australia and New Zealand are likely to retain their... 10th October 2023 · 1 min read
Capital Daily War in Israel & Gaza adds to market uncertainty The latest war between Hamas and Israel comes at a tricky juncture for global markets, and could easily increase volatility further. At this point, we think there are three key considerations around... 9th October 2023 · 5 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Oct. 2023) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. With the economy growing at an above-trend pace, the labour market should soon start to tighten... 9th October 2023 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Equity relief rally may not last long The US stock market has rallied so far today and is on track to bring to an end a spell of weekly losses. Although we think that the proximate cause of this recent weakness – rising bond yields – has... 6th October 2023 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap DXY streak under threat despite strong payrolls Remarkably, the dollar may be about the lose its record streak of weekly gains despite a strong US payrolls report. While the initial reaction to today’s data was another jump in the greenback, it has... 6th October 2023 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Bond market sell-off already hurting the economy The rapid rise in the 30-year gilt yield has lifted it to a 20-year high but, while striking, so far the speed of the increase is slower than in the run-up to the liability-driven investment crisis... 6th October 2023 · 8 mins read
