Latin America Economics Update Is Brazil’s economy overheating? Concerns that Brazil’s economy is overheating are justified – to an extent. But the economy looks very different now compared with the last bout of overheating in the early 2010s. As a result, while... 21st October 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the relative prospects for EM equities The recent outperformance of emerging market equities, relative to their developed market peers, has almost entirely reversed in October and we think this may be a sign of things to come. 21st October 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap The election and the dollar The US dollar has made further gains this week as US data continue to come in strong, contrasting favourably with the ECB’s surprisingly dovish policy announcement and softer inflation data in other... 18th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s MPR, Nigeria’s policy shift The South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Review (MPR) released this week made clear that a recommitment to fiscal consolidation and structural reforms are key to creating extra space for... 18th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Are markets starting to price in a Trump win? With the US election drawing closer and former president Trump’s perceived chances of winning on the rise, financial markets may be starting to shift towards discounting a Trump win. But, in our view... 18th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Bonds Update Corporate credit spreads may stay tight a long while yet Although corporate credit spreads in the US and the UK have nearly reached multi-decade lows, we think they will remain near those levels over the next year or so. And we don’t see spreads in the euro... 18th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Equities Focus Dim outlook for energy equities This Focus assesses the outlook for US energy equities, which have come into the spotlight of late amid swings in oil prices. In short, we expect the sector to underperform its peers over the coming... 18th October 2024 · 12 mins read
Capital Daily We think most DM yields will stay put through 2025 Falling inflation across developed markets (DM) supports our view that policy rates will generally settle at their neutral levels, close to current market pricing in most DMs. That’s why we expect... 16th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We still think the tech rebound has further to run Notwithstanding some weakness today, enthusiasm for tech stocks has returned in recent weeks. We think this enthusiasm will drive the US stock market higher, despite the optimism that is already... 15th October 2024 · 5 mins read
India Economics Update Modi resisting populist shift Contrary to many expectations in the aftermath of the BJP’s humbling in the general election, there is little evidence so far of Prime Minister Modi’s party shifting to more populist policymaking. And... 15th October 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Another turning point for China’s stock market? China’s authorities are clearly making an effort to boost the country’s stock market, despite some seeming missteps. But we doubt any further gains will survive very long into next year. 14th October 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar stays on the front foot amid mounting uncertainty Another week of upside surprises to US data and hawkish noises from some FOMC members have helped the US dollar build on last week’s rebound. With money markets now shifting towards discounting a... 11th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the Budget will prevent Gilts from rallying We think that the larger rise in yields in the UK than elsewhere over the past month is due to expectations that the Budget will boost demand rather than fiscal fears. That said, there is some upside... 11th October 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Budget jitters The recent falls in business and consumer confidence are undoubtedly due to the prospect of higher taxes in the Budget on 30th October. And the probable boost to demand from more public investment... 11th October 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly France’s 2025 budget; two-way risk for energy prices Having survived a vote of no confidence earlier in the week, France’s government presented its 2025 budget on Thursday, which highlighted the perilous state of the public finances. Meanwhile, energy... 11th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea cuts, Bank Indonesia on a knife edge The Bank of Korea cut interest rates today and we are expecting the central banks of Thailand and the Philippines to follow suit at their scheduled meetings on Wednesday. The Monetary Authority of... 11th October 2024 · 8 mins read
