Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s bumper trade surplus set to shrink The sharp rise in Brazil’s goods exports and the widening of the trade surplus since 2019 have been a point of strength for the economy. But we think these will reverse course before long. This feeds... 21st May 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We think rate expectations will drive yields down this year Despite the hawkish rhetoric from central bankers over the last few days, we still expect long-dated government bond yields in most developed markets to fall over the next year or so. 21st May 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily US equity outperformance may not help to revive the dollar The US dollar has been on the back foot amid the renewed rally in “risky” assets. While we think US stocks will soon re-establish the lead among global equities, we doubt US equity outperformance... 20th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (May 2024) Aggregate EM GDP growth will enter a slower phase over the coming quarters. But the headline figure masks large variation in prospects at the country level, with many EMs experiencing a reversal of... 20th May 2024 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (May 2024) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. While the economy has only narrowly avoided a recession, activity should rebound over coming... 20th May 2024 · 1 min read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar softens on inflation relief The US dollar has eased back in the wake of somewhat better news on US inflation this week, which has seen US interest rate expectations fall back a bit further. Between this week’s inflation news... 17th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Policy sugar rush may only take Chinese equities so far New measures to support China’s property sector have brought more cheer to Chinese equities. But, while we continue to think they will fare well in the coming months, we ultimately expect them to lose... 17th May 2024 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Industrial REITs point the way for direct market prices The recent sharp drop in industrial REIT prices appears to have been tied to Prologis’ Q1 earnings call, which referred to especially weak leasing in Q1 and a cut to expected year-end net operating... 17th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Rebound in Chinese equities may be sweet, but short Improving sentiment towards Chinese equities has sparked a further rebound over the past month, with stocks there having generally outperformed those elsewhere over this period. While we continue to... 17th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily “Big tech” stocks may be the crown jewel again before long Although the “big-tech” sectors have been out of favour compared to others so far this quarter, we expect them to regain the lead before long and help the US stock market outperform those elsewhere. 16th May 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Examining the divergence between EM credit spreads and FX For much of the past year, the dollar has strengthened against emerging market (EM) currencies even as EM sovereign dollar bond spreads have narrowed. One way or another, that is unlikely to last. 16th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi gigaproject dilemma, Ras el-Hekma boost, Tunisia Comments from Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan this week add to the evidence that spending on gigaprojects may be curtailed. But his comments pinning this on concerns about... 16th May 2024 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily US inflation relief for both Treasuries & equities Better news on US inflation over the past couple of days has provided further relief for bond and equity markets, and supports our forecast that Treasury yields will fall back a bit more over the... 15th May 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update Rand strength likely to reverse course soon Despite the rand’s recent outperformance, we think risks around the upcoming election in South Africa, among other factors, will cause renewed weakness in the currency before long. In view of wider... 16th May 2024 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Can Egypt take advantage of a weak pound? Egypt’s shift back toward economic orthodoxy will result in near-term economic pain, but it could also pave the way for faster economic growth over a longer horizon. Part of that will rest on Egypt... 15th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update EM sovereign bonds may outperform US Treasuries We expect total returns from both US dollar-denominated, and especially local-currency (LC), emerging market (EM) sovereign bonds to trump, in general, those from US Treasuries in the next couple of... 15th May 2024 · 4 mins read
