DM Markets Chart Pack Global Markets Chart Pack (May 2024) Our Global Markets Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. We think the Fed and most other DM central banks will be able to ease monetary policy this... 29th May 2024 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (May. 2024) Regional growth appears to have stabilised in Q1 and we think that a better external environment will provide a boost in the near term. Still, we think GDP growth will undershoot consensus... 28th May 2024 · 0 mins read
Capital Daily Have JGB yields found their sweet spot? The yield of 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) is now almost where we forecast it to be at the end of the year. Admittedly, we doubt that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will tighten policy as quickly... 28th May 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar consolidates as yields edge higher across the board The dollar looks set to end the week broadly unchanged against most currencies, halting its slide over the past couple of weeks. Bond yields in the US rebounded this week, partly due to the Fed... 24th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Three key questions on the stock market rally’s durability We doubt yesterday’s drop in the US equity market will prove a harbinger of further weakness to come – indeed, stocks have already rebounded today. But the unusual combination of a sizeable drop in... 24th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Is the Turkish lira turning a corner? Turkish policymakers have this week been extolling the lira’s recent stability. And the surge in foreign capital inflows after March’s rate hike suggests that there is a growing risk that the currency... 24th May 2024 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Update AUD & NZD to outperform other G10 currencies We think the kiwi and the aussie strength will continue over the next couple of years as we expect they will be among the last developed economies to start an easing cycle. 24th May 2024 · 4 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Sovereign bond spreads: from too high to too low? The sharp drop in frontier market sovereign dollar bond spreads this year has caught many by surprise. We think there’s a case that the bond rally may have gone too far in Argentina, Ecuador and... 24th May 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update Smaller and slower falls in inflation and interest rates We still think inflation will fall faster than the Bank of England is expecting, but in the light of April’s CPI release we now expect the downward trend to be slower and smaller. As a result, we have... 23rd May 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily A Labour government probably wouldn’t roil UK markets While the prospect of the Labour Party returning to government in the UK for the first time in 14 years might raise a few eyebrows in the financial markets, we wouldn’t put much store by the fact that... 23rd May 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Corporate credit spreads may end the year near extreme levels Corporate credit spreads have been near historical lows in recent weeks, and we think they will remain close to these levels in the coming months. 23rd May 2024 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Spillovers from the rally in Chinese equities We think equities in the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region may benefit most from improving sentiment towards China in the near term. But we think that economic / market exposures to the AI revolution, not to... 23rd May 2024 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Worst may not be over yet for South African financial assets Having underperformed most other EMs since the pandemic, we think that returns of financial assets in South Africa will continue to disappoint. The outlook would worsen if the African National... 23rd May 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Gilt yields: higher for only a little bit longer? While stronger-than-expected inflation data from the UK have led us to push back a bit our forecast for the start of the Bank of England’s easing cycle, we still project many more rate cuts than most... 22nd May 2024 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q2 24) Weak investment activity and continuing cap rate rises in Q1 fit with our view for another tough year for real estate. All-property values are now down by 17% from their mid-2022 peaks. But we still... 22nd May 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack (May 2024) Our Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest data indicate that capacity pressures have continued to ease, a trend... 22nd May 2024 · 1 min read
