Capital Daily Bund yields likely to fall despite today’s hawkish ECB While euro-zone inflation data has recently surprised to the upside, which was reflected in the hawkish tone of today’s ECB meeting, we still think the 10-year Bund yield will fall faster than the 10... 6th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update A new phase of the AI bubble? Investors appear to have shifted their bets away from stocks expected to benefit from using AI and doubled down on those expected to benefit from enabling the AI revolution. But the bigger picture is... 6th June 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Focus Interest rate cuts won’t reduce mortgage costs much Just as fixed mortgage rates have shielded homeowners from rising interest rates, they will prevent households’ interest costs from falling rapidly when interest rates are cut. While borrowers on... 6th June 2024 · 14 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The implications of Modi 3.0 for India’s equity market India’s election result isn’t, in our view, reason to turn downbeat on the country’s equity market, its wobbles earlier this week notwithstanding. But with a very positive story seemingly still priced... 6th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily How Canadian and US bond yields may measure up Although the gap between 10-year Treasury and Canadian Government Bond yields has reached the highest level in at least three decades today, we think it will widen even further in the next couple of... 5th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What’s driving the US stock market? The US stock market has been pulled in different directions by economic data since last week. But we suspect that the general trend in the next year or so will be up, as equities benefit from at least... 4th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily EM elections & markets: the good, the bad, & the ugly? Elections in South Africa, India, and Mexico have generated sizeable reactions in financial markets. Those moves may not last – often the immediate reaction to political events proves overdone – but... 3rd June 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Zloty’s appreciation may come to a halt Having lagged behind other emerging market (EM) currencies for most of the post-pandemic period, the Polish zloty has lead the pack over the past six months. While we think that most of this rally has... 3rd June 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar again on the backfoot as US inflation eases a touch The US dollar has eased back a bit further against other G10 currencies this week as another round of slightly softer US inflation data dampened the recent rebound in US interest rate expectations. By... 31st May 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The influence of Treasuries and AI on stocks The fall in Treasury yields over the past two days has failed to lift equities, partly because of waning AI hype weighing on the market. That’s a contrast to much of the past year or so, when the... 31st May 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack FX Markets Chart Pack (May. 2024) The US dollar has fallen back across the board in May as expected interest rate differentials have shifted against the US vis-à-vis many other economies, and risk sentiment has recovered. Overall, the... 31st May 2024 · 1 min read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Asset Allocation Chart Pack (May 2024) Most assets notched up gains this month, with “risky” ones generally outperforming “safe” ones. Government bond yields generally edged down in May and we expect that to continue, given our view that... 31st May 2024 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly What to watch for in a momentous week India's general election is coming to an end and from a macro perspective the key thing for investors to watch for is whether it delivers a government that has a working parliamentary majority that... 31st May 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily South African election adds uncertainty in markets The early results from South Africa’s general election suggest that the African National Congress (ANC) will fall short of securing a majority, and may be forced into forming a coalition with the... 30th May 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We think Bund yields will start falling before long We expect the 10-year Bund yield to fall by the end of the year as the ECB loosens policy more than investors are currently discounting. 29th May 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK Markets Chart Pack (May 2024) The stickiness of inflation in April has led us to shift back our forecast for the timing of the first interest rate cut from 5.25% from June to August. Even so, our view that CPI inflation will fall... 29th May 2024 · 1 min read
