Event Drop-In: French election outcome – Fiscal policy outlook and market risk 8th July 2024, 11:00AM BST Will this snap election mark the end of the France's political turmoil? And will the election results convince the bond vigilantes to stand down? Our senior Europe and Markets economists held this...
Asset Allocation Update AI bubble could continue to inflate, in the US and globally We think the S&P 500 will make further gains over the coming months, even though it’s already fared well this year and is approaching our existing end-year forecast. As such, we’ve revised that... 21st June 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Concerns over weaker yen will prompt July rate hike The Bank of Japan is concerned that the weak yen will result in a renewed acceleration in non-energy goods inflation and we think that the slide of the exchange rate to multi-decade lows this week... 21st June 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We still expect a broad-based fall in DM bond yields Despite the many twists and turns in bond markets this month amid mixed signals from central banks, most sovereign bonds in developed markets (DM) have rallied on net. We expect this to continue, with... 20th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (June 2024) After a strong start to the year, aggregate EM GDP growth will slow over the coming quarters. Within this there will be regional variation, with Emerging Asia the outperformer and Latin America the... 20th June 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily How long can the US stock market stand on one leg? The US stock market has hit another fresh all-time high, with its ascent is an increasingly lonely one driven by a handful of its constituents. That pattern may be difficult to sustain indefinitely... 19th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Political uncertainty to keep euro-zone spreads higher We expect political uncertainty in France to maintain a floor under government bond spreads in the near term, not only in France but also in other vulnerable euro-zone countries. Further ahead, we see... 19th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Depth of rate cuts matters more for markets than timing Although the Reserve Bank of Australia – which left policy on hold today – looks set to be the last developed market central bank to join the easing cycle now underway among developed economies, we... 18th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The best things might still not come in small packages We expect the renewed underperformance of small-cap equities vis-à-vis larger ones, which is now near its most extreme in two decades in the US, to continue there over the next year or so. That’s... 17th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Event Europe Drop-In: French political turmoil and macro/market spillover risks 1718805600 Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call a snap legislative election has triggered turmoil in French politics that is spilling into its financial markets.
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar ends rollercoaster week a touch stronger The US dollar has been taken on a rollercoaster ride this week. The US CPI and PPI reports for May have suggested that price pressures are gradually easing. These somewhat promising data reports have... 14th June 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily A poor week for French bonds and equities French government bonds and equities have sold off this week, and the euro has weakened. A lot of bad news now seems priced in, but we suspect the discount on French assets is here to stay. 14th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Political uncertainty might push French OAT yields even higher The 10-year yield spread between government bonds in France and Germany has risen above 80bp, its highest since the euro-zone debt crisis. Should the far-right National Rally be in a position to form... 14th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Treasury yields may not push JGB ones down further Although falling Treasury yields may continue to exert some downward pressure on Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields, we don’t think that will drive them much lower by the end of the year. 13th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Why we think the 10-year Treasury yield will fall further We are retaining our forecast that the 10-year Treasury yield will fall to 4.0% by the end of this year. That reflects our expectation that the Fed will pursue a slightly looser conventional monetary... 13th June 2024 · 5 mins read
