Latin America Economics Update How would a collapse of USMCA affect Mexico? A key risk for Mexico from the US election is that a Trump administration could withdraw from the USMCA free-trade agreement. In a plausible scenario in which Mexico were to face a universal import... 29th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We expect both US stocks and bonds to rally before long Equities have held up well in the face of the sell-off in Treasuries over the past month, although they have struggled to break to new highs over the past couple of weeks. But we doubt that pattern... 28th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Focus Final thoughts on the US election & market implications While the perceived probability of a Trump win has increased over recent weeks, we believe there is still ample scope for a sizeable repricing across markets once the election outcome becomes clear... 28th October 2024 · 14 mins read
Bonds Update Will gilts shrug off this week’s Budget? The possibility of looser fiscal policy than previous planned in the upcoming UK Budget on 30th October suggests the risks to our forecast that the 10-year gilt yield will fall to 3.50% by end-2025... 28th October 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar still on the front foot as the election(s) draw nearer The US dollar has continued to edge higher this week even in the absence of much economic data, suggesting that the gradual shift in the US election odds in favour of former president Trump continues... 25th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Poland’s retail sales shocker, BRICS and the dollar The substantial drop in Polish retail sales in September has been interpreted by some analysts as evidence that the engine of the economy is beginning to fail, but we think that these fears are... 25th October 2024 · 7 mins read
Bonds Focus Will Treasury bulls be able to face down the bond vigilantes? Our central forecast is that there won’t be a fiscally induced ‘crisis’ in the Treasury market. But there is clearly a risk of yields rising in response to higher term premia and more restrictive... 25th October 2024 · 17 mins read
China Economics Weekly Date set for fiscal reveal, stock frenzy boosting GDP The details of a widely anticipated fiscal stimulus package are expected to be revealed at the NPC Standing Committee’s next meeting, which has just been scheduled for 4th to 8th November. This... 25th October 2024 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily How big of a threat is Trump to Asian currencies? We suspect Asian currencies would underperform under a Trump presidency, even if they don’t seem to have been affected worse than others by the apparent rise in his chances of winning lately. 25th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Outlook for euro-zone equities brighter than for economy We think a pick-up in global growth and the further inflation of a US equity bubble mean prospects for euro-zone equities are generally promising, despite sluggish economic growth in the region. 24th October 2024 · 4 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (October 2024) The latest activity data have brought further evidence that India’s economy has entered a softer patch. Coupled with the RBI's change in policy stance in its October meeting, this suggests that... 24th October 2024 · 1 min read
Event Global Drop-In: Is inflation still a threat? 1730386800 Renewed jitters in bond markets in part reflect a nagging sense that inflation isn’t whipped.
Capital Daily Yen may rebound and weigh on Japanese equities We expect the Japanese yen to bounce back before long, putting more pressure on the Japanese stock market, at least in local currency terms. 23rd October 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Update Yen could weigh further on the TOPIX We argued last year that the relative strength of Japan’s stock market mostly reflected the weak yen rather than a fundamental transformation of its corporate sector. Developments since then suggest... 23rd October 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of the Treasury sell-off The recent sell-off in long-dated Treasuries and the accompanying ‘bear steepening’ of the curve make sense given recent developments. We continue to think that the former will unwind before too long... 22nd October 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of the outlook for the renminbi The depreciation pressure on the renminbi has abated over recent months and the USD/CNY rate is currently trading around our end-2024 target of 7.10. But with US interest rate expectations on the rise... 21st October 2024 · 5 mins read
