Capital Daily We think much of the weakness in EM FX has run its course Nearly all major emerging market (EM) currencies have fallen against the US dollar so far this year, but we think the downside for most of these currencies is limited from here. 24th June 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update Q&A on French election: politics, economics, markets This Update summarises the answers to some of the questions which clients raised in our recent online briefing about the forthcoming French legislative elections. The questions are divided into three... 24th June 2024 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Euro-zone PMIs point to lower bund yields and a weak euro Weaker-than-expected euro-zone PMIs in June leave us confident in our view that bund yields will edge down over the coming months, while we doubt spreads will fall back much in France or Italy. This... 21st June 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Greenback broadly flat as DM easing cycle gathers pace Despite more central bank policy announcements this week, most currencies fluctuated within a tight range and the dollar seems set to end the week broadly flat – boosted a bit by the release of PMI... 21st June 2024 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update French politics need not sink euro-zone stocks Recent political uncertainty in France has taken a big toll on equities there, but stock markets elsewhere in the euro-zone have generally avoided major selloffs. That’s broadly consistent with past... 21st June 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Risk premia on Latin American assets may rise further Latin American assets have generally underperformed those elsewhere of late, in part driven by rising risk premia on the region’s assets. We think these risk premia may rise further over the coming... 21st June 2024 · 4 mins read
India Economics Weekly Bond index ambitions realised, Q3 Outlook India's government will achieve a long-held policy objective next week when JPMorgan adds the country's local bonds to its largest EM sovereign bond index. While an important milestone, we expect the... 21st June 2024 · 3 mins read
Event Drop-In: French election outcome – Fiscal policy outlook and market risk 1720432800 Will this snap election mark the end of the France's political turmoil? And will the election results convince the bond vigilantes to stand down?
Asset Allocation Update AI bubble could continue to inflate, in the US and globally We think the S&P 500 will make further gains over the coming months, even though it’s already fared well this year and is approaching our existing end-year forecast. As such, we’ve revised that... 21st June 2024 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Concerns over weaker yen will prompt July rate hike The Bank of Japan is concerned that the weak yen will result in a renewed acceleration in non-energy goods inflation and we think that the slide of the exchange rate to multi-decade lows this week... 21st June 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We still expect a broad-based fall in DM bond yields Despite the many twists and turns in bond markets this month amid mixed signals from central banks, most sovereign bonds in developed markets (DM) have rallied on net. We expect this to continue, with... 20th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (June 2024) After a strong start to the year, aggregate EM GDP growth will slow over the coming quarters. Within this there will be regional variation, with Emerging Asia the outperformer and Latin America the... 20th June 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily How long can the US stock market stand on one leg? The US stock market has hit another fresh all-time high, with its ascent is an increasingly lonely one driven by a handful of its constituents. That pattern may be difficult to sustain indefinitely... 19th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Political uncertainty to keep euro-zone spreads higher We expect political uncertainty in France to maintain a floor under government bond spreads in the near term, not only in France but also in other vulnerable euro-zone countries. Further ahead, we see... 19th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Depth of rate cuts matters more for markets than timing Although the Reserve Bank of Australia – which left policy on hold today – looks set to be the last developed market central bank to join the easing cycle now underway among developed economies, we... 18th June 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The best things might still not come in small packages We expect the renewed underperformance of small-cap equities vis-à-vis larger ones, which is now near its most extreme in two decades in the US, to continue there over the next year or so. That’s... 17th June 2024 · 4 mins read
