FX Markets Weekly Wrap Payrolls-driven dollar rebound might set the tone for Q4 The US dollar is on course for its best week in two years and looks to have found a near-term floor after its sharp fall in Q2. Today’s strong non-farm payrolls report (and robust ISM surveys earlier... 4th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly France budget needs more than temporary fixes Despite the new French government’s plan to tighten fiscal policy by 2% of GDP next year, the country’s debt dynamics appear no better than they did a few weeks ago. Moreover, the government is... 4th October 2024 · 8 mins read
China Economics Weekly PBOC resists CNY appreciation, EU votes on EV tariffs In a marked shift following a decade of one-sided intervention, the PBOC is now leaning heavily on its daily fixing rate to limit the renminbi's appreciation. We think this is an attempt to maintain... 4th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Equities Update Is this time different for China’s stock market? We’re cautiously optimistic that China’s equity market will hold on to its recent gains, and perhaps even extend upon them in the near term. But we still think its long-run prospects are poor. 4th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We see more weakness in GBP, notably against EUR The British pound fell sharply today, and we suspect that it will weaken more over the next year or so given our dovish view of Bank of England policy, the currency’s still-high valuation, and... 3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update Is Nigeria benefitting from a weaker naira? The Nigerian naira has fallen by more than 70% against the dollar since President Tinubu came to office, which has contributed to a surge in inflation that has weighed on economic growth. There are... 3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What to make of the industrial heartland of the US stock market? Since mid-2022, the average stock in the industrials sector has returned more than the average stock in all other sectors of the S&P 500. This raises the question of whether investors have a rose... 3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Will US equity underperformance last? While some drivers of the US stock market’s recent underperformance are likely in our view to persist, we think that they will soon be outweighed by renewed enthusiasm about AI. And only when the... 3rd October 2024 · 4 mins read
China Economics Update China stimulus: your questions answered China’s recent stimulus announcements are still at the top of many investors’ minds, at least judging by the high level of client interest in the online briefing we ran on the topic yesterday. We’ve... 3rd October 2024 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of markets & the Mideast escalation While the latest escalation of the conflict between Israel and Iran is worrying, our view remains that it would take a significant further widening of the war, including actual disruption to energy... 2nd October 2024 · 5 mins read
Event Drop-In: The global macro and markets outlook – What you need to know 1728396000 The euro-zone has stalled, the US labour market is cooling and China has only belatedly announced stimulus measures.
Latin America Economics Update Mexico and what to expect from President Sheinbaum We held a Drop-In yesterday to discuss what investors should expect as Claudia Sheinbaum takes over the presidency in Mexico. A recording of the event can be found here. This Update answers some of... 2nd October 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Oil spikes, but not yet a concern for central banks Brent crude oil has jumped by around 4% to ~$74.5pb at the time of writing, following reports that Iran is preparing a ballistic missile strike against Israel. Much remains uncertain. A key issue – if... 1st October 2024 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Update Asia: key client questions answered We recently held a series of Asia-focussed roundtable discussions with clients in London, covering an array of topics including the impact of Fed easing, the US election, global fracturing and China’s... 1st October 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily China vs Japan: a tale of two stock markets We doubt China’s equities will continue to outperform Japan’s through the end of 2025, despite their recent divergence. 30th September 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Fewer cuts may push US & EZ yields up & the EUR sideways We don’t see compelling reasons for policymakers in the US or the euro-zone to lower policy rates as much as market pricing suggests, so we expect long-dated bond yields there to edge up before long... 27th September 2024 · 4 mins read
