Capital Daily Another turning point for China’s stock market? China’s authorities are clearly making an effort to boost the country’s stock market, despite some seeming missteps. But we doubt any further gains will survive very long into next year. 14th October 2024 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar stays on the front foot amid mounting uncertainty Another week of upside surprises to US data and hawkish noises from some FOMC members have helped the US dollar build on last week’s rebound. With money markets now shifting towards discounting a... 11th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the Budget will prevent Gilts from rallying We think that the larger rise in yields in the UK than elsewhere over the past month is due to expectations that the Budget will boost demand rather than fiscal fears. That said, there is some upside... 11th October 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Budget jitters The recent falls in business and consumer confidence are undoubtedly due to the prospect of higher taxes in the Budget on 30th October. And the probable boost to demand from more public investment... 11th October 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly France’s 2025 budget; two-way risk for energy prices Having survived a vote of no confidence earlier in the week, France’s government presented its 2025 budget on Thursday, which highlighted the perilous state of the public finances. Meanwhile, energy... 11th October 2024 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea cuts, Bank Indonesia on a knife edge The Bank of Korea cut interest rates today and we are expecting the central banks of Thailand and the Philippines to follow suit at their scheduled meetings on Wednesday. The Monetary Authority of... 11th October 2024 · 8 mins read
India Economics Weekly RBI shifts stance, FTSE Russell, state election results The shift in the RBI's official policy stance, alongside the announcement of India's inclusion in the FTSE Russell EM bond index and state election results that should ease fiscal risks, has... 11th October 2024 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Rising geopolitical tensions could prick the AI bubble A further decoupling of trade ties between the US and China or a sharp rise in Cross-Strait tensions, even if a full-blown conflict is avoided, are two big geopolitical events that we think present a... 11th October 2024 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily CPI upside surprise may not lead to higher UST yields The initial market reaction to today’s release of US inflation for September and jobless claims data suggests to us that investors may be more concerned about the latter than about the former. We... 10th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Bonds Update Assessing the risks to Treasuries The bond market sell-off over recent weeks has taken the 10-year Treasury yield to around our long-held end-2024 forecast of 4.00%. Although significant economic, political, and geopolitical risks... 10th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Bonds & Equities Global Markets Valuations Monitor (October 2024) The valuations of “risky” assets continued to rise in the third quarter, both in absolute terms and relative to “safe” asset yields. We think that reflects the start of the Fed’s easing cycle and... 10th October 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Three key points on antitrust & the US stock market Market participants have largely shrugged off the news that the US Department of Justice (DoJ) may seek a court-ordered break up of Google. Given the snail’s pace at which the US antitrust process... 9th October 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) We think the Chancellor will raise taxes in line with the planned £16bn (0.6% of GDP) a year increase in public spending at the Budget on 30th October. The main influence of this will just be a... 9th October 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Reality check for China’s stock market: What’s next? China’s offshore equity market plunged today as the latest policy announcement from Beijing disappointed expectations. With much of the low hanging fruit (as far as valuations are concerned) now... 8th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily US market optimism may have further to run The optimism across US equity and corporate bond markets as the labour market proves resilient makes sense to us. We think it will continue, providing a tailwind for those assets. 7th October 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What next for Treasuries after blockbuster payrolls? The strong reading on the US labour market released today has taken the 10-year Treasury yield towards our end-2024 forecast of 4%. We expect it to stay around this level, though the risks to the... 4th October 2024 · 5 mins read
