EM Valuations Monitor Has the rally in “junk” bonds gone too far? The strong performance of non-investment grade (or “junk”) dollar-denominated government bonds in recent weeks has driven the yield premium over investment grade bonds down to 360bp, a level rarely... 4th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Markets rally, Brazilian assets outperform A recovery in global commodity prices has helped to support a broad-based rally in Latin America’s financial markets so far this month. Brazilian assets are down a little today but they have... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Shortage of assets won’t prevent ECB QE expansion The limited supply of eligible government bonds need not prevent the ECB from delivering the significant increase in asset purchases that is needed to impress investors. We see it buying the debt of a... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus A closer look at financial conditions Financial conditions have tightened in recent months, as the dollar has continued to trend higher, corporate credit spreads have widened and stock markets have suffered a correction. Nevertheless... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Will capital controls work? Many countries facing balance of payments strains have found that large outflows continue even after they tighten capital controls. China though stands a better chance of success. The capital account... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Jan.) Despite a small drop last month, consumer confidence remains strong. However, household inflation expectations are now approaching levels last seen before the Bank of Japan launched Quantitative and... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap A tough start to the year for frontier financial markets Frontier assets have had a difficult start to the year as fears over global growth caused fresh turmoil in financial markets. Oil producers have been particularly hard hit on the back of the collapse... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Commodities collapse triggers fresh rout Financial markets in Latin America have had a torrid start to this year. The renewed falls in commodity prices have been the main factor behind the latest falls in equities and currencies in the... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Should we be worried about Sovereign Wealth Funds? The collapse in oil prices has prompted concerns that many sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) will be forced to liquidate their vast holdings of financial assets, thereby putting further pressure on market... 19th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currencies shrug off looming Fed hike Currencies in Latin America appear to have shrugged off the prospect of a looming US interest rate hike, with most exchange rates broadly unchanged against the dollar month-to-date. The currencies of... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack 2015 another year to forget, but outlook brighter Most emerging market (EM) asset classes have underperformed their peers in developed markets so far this year. Plenty of downside risks remain going into 2016, but we continue to think that EM markets... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK stuck between transatlantic policy divergence It now looks odds on that the US Federal Reserve presses ahead and raises interest rates next week, while on the other side of the English Channel, the ECB has already loosened policy further. The UK... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Most EMs well-placed to weather Fed tightening Our Capital Economics Risk Indicator (CERI) suggests that financial risks in the emerging world in aggregate are low and there is little to suggest that the onset of Fed tightening will trigger an EM... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Why the US stock market is not hugely overvalued Some claim that the US stock market is heading for a collapse because they assume that its price/earnings ratio will inevitably plummet to its long-run average. This assumption is wrong if, as seems... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Commodity price slump produces mixed policy response The slump in commodity prices over the past year has meant central banks in net commodity exporting and importing countries have continued to follow different paths. Despite the hit to growth from... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) Bank lending continues to expand at a robust pace, but the increase in domestic credit is dwarfed by the surge in foreign claims, with their yen-value inflated by the weaker exchange rate. 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
