Latin America Economic Outlook A slow and uneven recovery Growth in Latin America as a whole is likely to strengthen over the coming quarters, but with monetary and fiscal policy tightening in most countries, it will be weaker than most expect. We’re... 22nd October 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook S&P 500, Treasury yields and US dollar all likely to fall We think that the S&P 500, Treasury yields and the US dollar will all fall by the end of next year, as a sharp slowdown in the US economy prompts the Fed to stop hiking rates sooner than investors are... 19th October 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Back down to earth in Q3 Japan’s economy was always likely to slow in the third quarter after the surge of output it generated in the second. But the latest data have still been rather disappointing. While investment remains... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economic Outlook Rapid growth to continue for a while yet GDP growth has surged in recent quarters and, while it has probably peaked, we expect it to remain strong ahead of the general election in the first half of 2019. Thereafter, a focus on fiscal... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil’s markets look too sanguine on political risk The rally in Brazilian markets this week on polls showing a rise in support for right-wing presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro suggests that the political risk premium being priced in has declined... 4th October 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack A good year for growth The surprising strength of economic growth in the second quarter has led us to revise up our forecasts for GDP growth in the 2018 calendar year from 2.5% to 3.2% for Australia and from 2.5% to 2.7%... 26th September 2018 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Do financial markets pose a risk to the global economy? Ten years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, there are concerns that the financial markets will bring the global economy to its knees again. We do not think, however, that they will be a major... 14th September 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Focus High debt burdens mean rate hikes will hit hard The large build-up in private sector debt over the last decade means that the Canadian economy is far more sensitive to interest rate rises than in the past. This increases the likelihood that the... 10th September 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Assessing the economic impact of recent market falls The macro impact of the recent falls in Asian markets is likely to be relatively small for most economies. The exceptions are the Philippines and Indonesia, where weaker currencies have forced... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Five points on the EM sell-off The EM sell-off appears to have become more broad-based in the last few days, although there is little evidence that – outside Turkey and Argentina – the market turmoil is resulting in macroeconomic... 5th September 2018 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack The resilience of the US stock market is unlikely to last Large-cap equities have generally continued to make headway in the US since the end of July, despite the fact that they have fallen in much of the rest of the developed world. Historically, equities... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Households holding up well Australian households have been more resilient to low income growth and falling house prices than we expected. After rising by just 0.3% q/q in the first quarter, the solid rises in retail sales in... 29th August 2018 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How does the latest EM sell-off stack up? Asset prices in Turkey and Argentina have fallen dramatically in recent weeks, while the moves in other countries’ markets look similar to previous EM sell-offs over the past decade. It’s still very... 23rd August 2018 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Emerging markets not a major risk for the Fed or ECB Even if emerging market assets remain under pressure this year, we don’t expect the crises in Argentina and Turkey to be replicated in other emerging economies. Meanwhile, domestic conditions in the... 22nd August 2018 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Equities continue to scale new highs Indian equities have continued to surge in August, with the benchmark Sensex stock index rising to a fresh record high of over 38,000 today. The recent strong performance in the Sensex compared to... 20th August 2018 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Turkey’s crisis just one of many threats to EM assets The main factor weighing on EM assets recently has been worries about contagion from the crisis in Turkey. But even if these fears subside, there are plenty of other reasons to be pessimistic about... 17th August 2018 · 1 min read