UK Markets Chart Pack Markets expect earlier rate hikes to quash inflation The combination of the Fed’s more hawkish tone and the larger-than-expected rise in UK CPI inflation in May to 2.1% has led the financial markets to bring forward their expectations of when the Bank... 23rd June 2021 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily We think that returns from US corporate bonds will underwhelm US corporate credit spreads have reached post-Global-Financial-Crisis (GFC) lows in recent weeks. So, despite our forecast for a healthy US economy, we expect US corporate bonds to outperform... 22nd June 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We expect further US dollar appreciation We think that the surge in the US dollar which has followed Wednesday’s FOMC meeting is a sign of things to come. 18th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank might rethink; Swedish gov’t on the brink Against the backdrop of a red-hot housing market, the Riksbank might draw inspiration from the Swedish football team, which embodied one of the ideals of central banking in its opening Euro 2020 game... 18th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Three key points on the fallout from the FOMC The market reaction to the Fed’s optimistic assessment of the economic outlook strengthens our conviction that US Treasury yields will end the year significantly higher. 17th June 2021 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap All eyes on Wednesday’s FOMC announcement Although Treasury yields somewhat surprisingly fell after the larger-than-expected rise in last month’s inflation in the US, the dollar is ending the week slightly stronger against most currencies... 11th June 2021 · 9 mins read
FX Markets Focus Why we expect the US dollar to reverse course Having fallen back to near its post-pandemic lows, we don’t think that the decline in the US dollar will continue. In this Focus, we explain why instead we expect the dollar to strengthen against most... 11th June 2021 · 11 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect the tailwind to stocks from commodities to fade The rise in commodity prices has boosted some commodity-heavy stock markets, but we suspect that it will run out of steam before long, limiting those stock markets’ gains over the next couple of years... 10th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Prospects for risky assets no longer seem as bright We are still anticipating an extremely rapid recovery in the global economy over the rest of this year. But even so, it has become more difficult to make the case that returns from risky assets across... 10th June 2021 · 13 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (May 2021) Our monthly Long Run Returns Monitor provides an updated set of projections for the returns from major asset classes over the next few decades. Given that the period since the previous edition of this... 27th May 2021 · 1 min read
Capital Daily We expect credit spreads to remain low, with some exceptions We think sovereign and corporate credit spreads will generally remain lows in the next two years. The main exceptions are sovereign credit spreads in Latin America, Emerging Europe and Africa, which... 27th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Economic recovery facilitates house price surge House prices are now surging in both countries. House price cycles in the Australian housing market tend to lag those in New Zealand a little, which is consistent with the forward indicators pointing... 29th April 2021 · 11 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Apr. 2021) Following their sharp rises earlier on in the year, government bond yields have steadied over the past few weeks. Perhaps reflecting this, both global equities and developed market (DM) REITs have... 23rd April 2021 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Virus restrictions start to bite Our in-house mobility tracker suggests that the surge in virus infections in India is now weighing on activity. This is likely to become more pronounced as the outbreak has become more widespread... 21st April 2021 · 10 mins read
Long Run Update US stock market unlikely to keep beating its economy While the stock market fared much better than the economy in the US overall during the past ten years, we do not expect that to remain the case. 17th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Mar. 2021) In this first edition of the Long Run Returns Monitor we present an updated version of the projected returns from the major asset classes which feature in our annual Long Run Asset Allocation Outlook... 5th March 2021 · 1 min read
