FX Markets Weekly Wrap Growth concerns buoy the dollar despite falling US yields Although it has fallen back a bit today after China delivered a surprise cut to banks’ reserve requirements, the US dollar has otherwise continued to appreciate against most currencies. The dollar’s... 9th July 2021 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update Taking stock of our Treasury yield forecasts We don’t expect the latest tumble in long-dated US Treasury yields to continue, and still think yields will rise significantly over the next few years. But given developments over the past couple of... 9th July 2021 · 5 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor High valuations may hold back risky assets While we don’t think that risky assets are in a systemic bubble, we suspect there is limited scope for further large increases in valuations to drive their prices higher over the next few years. 9th July 2021 · 8 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What’s behind renewed US equity outperformance? It has become harder to make the case that the stock market in the US will fare worse than those in the rest of the developed world, now that the “rotation” trade has fizzled out. Nonetheless, we... 7th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily US payrolls and Treasury yields Although the 10-year Treasury yield hardly moved after today’s release of the US Employment Report for June, we still expect it to resume its rise before long. 2nd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Earnings expectations and the outlook for DM equities We think that there is more scope for earnings expectations to improve outside, than inside, the US. In both cases, though, we are not anticipating upward revisions on the scale seen over the past... 2nd July 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian ruble may hold onto some of this year’s gains The Russian ruble appreciated to a one-year high against the dollar recently but we think the rally will fade as oil prices fall back and US Treasury yields rise further. That said, the central bank’s... 2nd July 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Weighing up the prospects for the NOK We think that the Norwegian krone will continue to strengthen against the euro over next year or so. This is despite our forecast for a pull-back in oil prices and reflects our view of the relative... 1st July 2021 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Would US equities beat Treasuries if inflation surged? The received wisdom is that inflation is worse for government bonds than for equities. Yet the S&P 500 has fared worse than 10-year Treasuries in a couple of periods of high inflation in the US since... 1st July 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Vaccine campaigns running into supply constraints With the more contagious delta variant spreading in Australia, half of the population is now in lockdown. This highlights the Achilles heel of both countries’ virus management: their slow vaccine... 30th June 2021 · 11 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack We expect generally higher long-term EM bond yields We think investors may be overestimating how much monetary policy tightening is on the way in emerging markets (EMs), but still expect long-dated EM government bond yields to rise a bit from here. 29th June 2021 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap US ISM and payrolls could add fuel to the dollar rally The US dollar seems set to end the week slightly weaker, but has held much of its gains following last Wednesday’s FOMC announcement. With increasing focus on the prospects for monetary tightening... 25th June 2021 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily Banxico & the prospects for high carry EM currencies Banxico’s surprise interest rate hike highlights the growing pressure on many emerging market central banks from the combination of rising inflation and the Fed’s shift towards policy normalisation... 25th June 2021 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack We think the rally in the US dollar has further to run The sharp rise in the US dollar following last week’s FOMC meeting reinforces our view that the greenback will appreciate further against most currencies this year. 24th June 2021 · 10 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect the 10-year Treasury yield to rise again Although the 10-year Treasury yield has eased back following last week’s FOMC meeting, we still expect it to increase again before too long. 24th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Jun. 2021) Given that the moves in most financial markets since the previous editionof our Long Run Returns Monitor have been fairly small–at least for the period as a whole –the returns that we are projecting... 24th June 2021 · 1 min read
