China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Aug.) Headline inflation looks set to remain roughly stable in the near term. Although it is likely to rise again over the next few quarters on the back of rising pork prices and an increase in utility... 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Major shockwaves from Argentine default unlikely We do not expect Argentina’s default to trigger a prolonged ripple of contagion in the rest of Latin America. There may be some turbulence in the region’s financial markets, but we suspect that the... 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Property price worries prompt rate hikes The central banks of New Zealand, the Philippines and Malaysia all tightened monetary policy last month amid signs that policymakers are becoming increasingly concerned that loose monetary policy is... 30th July 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Signs of recovery in North Africa Following a difficult few years, the latest data have provided further evidence that things are improving in North Africa. It looks like growth in both Tunisia and Egypt accelerated over the first... 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Business investment rebounds The weakness of business investment over the past couple of years has been disconcerting, but arange of indicators point to a much stronger showing in the second quarter while, more generally, rising... 21st July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada's equity market rally likely to simmer down The recent rally in Canada's benchmark stock market index, which has risen by 24% over the past 12 months, took it to a new record high last week. What's more impressive from our vantage point is the... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Household financial leverage still dangerously high While Canadian policymakers will be somewhat relieved to learn that household financial leverage hasn't risen any higher this year, it hasn't fallen either, meaning that heavily indebted households... 19th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing affordability a major problem While the Canadian government has been tightening its macro-prudential housing rules over the past five years, housing valuations have continued to inflate and household financial leverage has climbed... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Can macro-prudential policies prevent bubbles? If policy-makers hope that macro-prudential measures alone will prevent asset price bubbles from occurring, they may well be disappointed. In principle, these regulations should be able to dampen... 6th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Farmland: Is the bubble bursting? The rapid run-up in the price of farmland appears to be over. We suspect that the slowdown in the growth rate of farmland prices last year will develop into an outright decline in prices this year, at... 7th April 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will the housing market force the MPC to act? Last week’s news that house prices surged in February will have done little to dispel concerns that record low interest rates are contributing to the emergence of a renewed house price bubble... 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jan.) January's pick-up in house price inflation isn't that surprising when you consider last year's home buying rush that was triggered by fears of rising mortgage rates. Now that home sales are dropping... 12th February 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Fall in equity prices not enough to dent global growth The drop in global equity prices since the beginning of the year should have little effect on growth. It reverses only part of the increase in prices over the past two years. Moreover, the steepest... 10th February 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Further Nikkei outperformance likely The Nikkei rose by 60% in 2013, the largest increase in decades. A similarly stellar performance this year is obviously unlikely, but we still see room for further gains both in 2014 and 2015. While... 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Recovery entering a slower phase Japan’s economy likely continued to grow at a solid pace in the second quarter of the year, even though the recent wide divergence between various measures of consumer spending raises question marks... 6th August 2013 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Field of dreams: Is farmland the next bubble? There does appear to be a localised bubble in farmland values in the corn belt. Near-zero interest rates have undoubtedly played some role in this, but the bigger factor has been the surge in corn and... 10th June 2013 · 1 min read
