US Economics Weekly Odds of another government shutdown still fairly low There is a good chance that Congress will pass an omnibus spending bill this week, which should keep most of the Federal government funded until next October. We still think it is unlikely that there... 5th December 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Autumn Statement 2014: Staying the course This was a budget in all but name – and a pre-election one at that. It was designed to be attractive to voters in the here and now, while not taking any risks with the public finances. 3rd December 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update How will QE in Japan and the euro-zone affect EMs? The Bank of Japan’s decision to boost asset purchases just as the ECB edges towards QE has rekindled concerns about negative spillovers from developed world monetary policy to the emerging world. The... 21st November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Which assets should the ECB buy? An effective ECB QE programme would probably involve large-scale purchases of higher-yielding and long-term debt, including both government bonds and private sector assets. But we suspect that the... 19th November 2014 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Improvement in current account position here to stay The recent sharp falls in gold and oil prices could feasibly push India’s current account into surplus over the coming months. Given that India’s large external deficit made its markets among the... 13th November 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update How big a deal is the Shanghai Connect scheme? The Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect scheme has the potential to lead to a huge increase in capital flows both into and out of China. But it will start slowly and be scaled up only gradually. 11th November 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly How big a threat is the weak yen to Korea? The latest increase in asset purchases by the Bank of Japan has caused another weakening of the yen, and created anxiety around the rest of Asia over rising competition from Japanese exports. Given... 7th November 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Risk of spikes in US natural gas prices still high The recent unseasonably warm weather has given US natural gas companies additional time to boost stocks before heating demand picks up. However, the amount of gas in storage is still significantly... 5th November 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Gold referendum highlights limits of SNB policy Fears that a referendum over the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB’s) gold holdings might prevent the Bank defending its ceiling for the Swiss franc may be overblown. But the referendum highlights political... 4th November 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Bubble in US Treasuries should deflate soon If recent history is any guide, Fed tightening is unlikely to derail stock markets to the extent that many fear. Our view is that while US equities will struggle to make further headway, they will... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ sets stage for further weakening of yen It always looked likely that the Bank of Japan would be forced to step up its pace of easing but the change of tack has come sooner than the market (or we) had expected. Given the recent downward... 31st October 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Support from the Fed’s QE is not about to disappear The widely anticipated completion of the Fed’s purchases under QE3 need not mark the end of the policy’s support for global asset prices. As it happens, QE3 was not much of a boon to emerging markets... 28th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing bubble unlikely to prompt a rate hike Housing bubble fears have prompted some commentators to suggest that the Bank of Canada should hike interest rates before it's too late. But since the Bank doesn't typically target asset price... 6th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Private sector debt growth accelerates Private sector debt growth accelerated in the second quarter, as both household and business borrowing increased at a healthy pace. Nevertheless, debt growth is still running at a slower pace than... 19th September 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Dubai's GREs slowly tackling their debt problems Over the past month Dubai’s government-related entities (GREs), which were at the heart of the Emirate’s crisis in 2009, have made further efforts to tackle their huge mountains of debt. The recovery... 28th August 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update What will Fed rate hikes mean for Asia? EM assets sold off sharply last year after the US Fed hinted that QE was on borrowed time, with some of Asia's major economies getting caught up in the turmoil. Markets have become jittery again in... 8th August 2014 · 1 min read
