Capital Daily We expect risky assets to hold up despite ‘peak growth’ narrative In our view, most ‘risky’ assets are likely to perform quite well over the next few years despite the ‘peak growth’ narrative that has gained traction recently, but there are some key exceptions. 13th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update Tapering and Treasuries We think tapering by the Fed will remove an obstacle in the way of higher long-term yields, supporting our view that their latest rebound will continue, in general, over the next couple of years. 13th August 2021 · 5 mins read
FX We expect rising UST yields to extend the dollar’s rally We expect further rises in US Treasury yields to support continued gains in the US dollar against most other developed market (DM) currencies, especially the yen and the Swiss franc. 13th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Weighing up the prospects for DM sovereign yields Given our forecasts for the paths of monetary policy across developed markets, we expect a general ‘bear steepening’ of sovereign yield curves in the near term, particularly in the US, Canada and... 13th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Three recent trends we expect to last We expect several of the trends that have tentatively (re-)emerged in financial markets recently to persist. 12th August 2021 · 13 mins read
UK Economics Recovery becoming more tepid With a whopping 1.0 million people on average having been asked by the NHS App or Test & Trace system to self-isolate in July, the “pingdemic” is likely to have stifled the economic recovery in recent... 11th August 2021 · 9 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect commodity currencies to remain under pressure Although the currencies of most commodity exporters appear undervalued in the context of high commodity prices, we still think most commodity currencies will depreciate further against the US dollar. 11th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We think the divergence in “rotation sectors” will continue We think that the sectoral outperformance so far this month of financials relative to energy and materials has further to run. 10th August 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Markets Economy and policy to provide a bit less support The recent downward revision to our GDP growth forecasts and the recent hawkish signs from the Bank of England which prompted us to bring forward our forecast of when monetary policy will be tightened... 9th August 2021 · 12 mins read
Capital Daily Some more thoughts on the Treasury yield curve Our expectation that the US yield curve will “bear steepen” might seem strange given its behaviour ahead of recent major Fed tightening cycles. After all, in three of the last four, the spread between... 9th August 2021 · 4 mins read
FX Dollar resumes its rally on the back of strong US data The US dollar is ending the week higher against most currencies, extending its gains alongside rising US Treasury yields following the stronger-than-expected July payrolls data. With Fed officials... 6th August 2021 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily Strong employment report points to a steeper US yield curve We think that today’s non-farm payrolls release, and recent news on the bipartisan US infrastructure bill, add some weight to our view that the past week’s climb in US Treasury yields and steepening... 6th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update Taking stock of US earnings season so far While the earnings of firms in the S&P 500 have generally surprised to the upside in the second quarter of this year (Q2), we think the scope for further positive earnings surprises from here is... 6th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Post-MPC rise in Gilt yields may be a sign of things to come The 10-year Gilt yield rose slightly after the Bank of England left its policy settings unchanged today and we expect it to continue to push higher over the coming years. 5th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Bonds & Equities We doubt valuations will support China’s stock market While measures of the valuation of China’s stock market have fallen recently, we don’t expect them to rebound soon. This helps to underpin our fairly downbeat forecasts for the country’s stock indices... 5th August 2021 · 8 mins read
Asset Allocation The asset allocation implications of China’s slowdown The further slowdown we expect in China would probably be a headwind for some “risky” assets that are particularly sensitive to its economic cycle. It also informs our view that China’s sovereign... 4th August 2021 · 4 mins read
