Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Aug.) Our monthly Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections... 24th August 2021 · 1 min read
Capital Daily The latest stock market sell-off and the rotation trade We think the sectoral rotation trade will be a key feature of stock markets as economies continue to recover, resulting in the US market generally trailing those elsewhere. 23rd August 2021 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rally continues as Jackson Hole approaches The US dollar has risen sharply this week, reaching its highest level of the year as continued fears about the spread of the “delta” variant and further evidence of growing risks in China (around its... 20th August 2021 · 10 mins read
FX Markets Valuations Monitor We think the US dollar is strong, but could rise further The US dollar remains somewhat above its “fair” value on most of the metrics we track. But its overvaluation is not extreme by historical standards, nor is that of many other currencies, and we do not... 20th August 2021 · 10 mins read
FX Markets Focus Our approach to currency valuation This Focus provides an overview of the concepts and models underpinning our new FX Markets Valuations Monitor. It is split into three sections. The first explains our framework for thinking about... 20th August 2021 · 14 mins read
Capital Daily Is the US dollar overvalued? The recent gains in the US dollar have left it somewhat above its “fair” value on most metrics we track, but we doubt this will prevent it from rising over the next 6-12 months. 20th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update The virus and global stock markets Progress made by countries in dealing with COVID-19 still seems to have had little bearing, in general, on the relative performance of their stock markets. Instead, swings in sentiment about the virus... 20th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Gains in EM equities may be small from here We don’t expect emerging market (EM) equities, as a whole, to rack up big gains over the next few years thanks in part to the spillovers of lower growth in China. 19th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the risk to Treasuries from tapering The muted reaction in the Treasury market following the release of the minutes of last month’s FOMC meeting may seem surprising given the revelation that most participants thought it could be... 19th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Asia bucks the monetary policy trend Several EM central banks have continued to tighten monetary policy over the past month or so in response to strong reopening rebounds (Chile, Czech Republic, Hungary) and/or rising inflation concerns... 18th August 2021 · 10 mins read
Asset Allocation Update On the relative valuations of US housing and equities Despite growing talk of another bubble in the US housing market, its valuation remains far less stretched than that of the US stock market and is not alarming in our view given the prospects for... 18th August 2021 · 4 mins read
US Chart Pack Growth slowing even before potential Delta drag The 1.1% m/m fall in retail sales last month illustrates the worsening drag from the sharp slowdown in real income growth, as earlier fiscal support fades and surging prices erode purchasing power... 18th August 2021 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily We expect US credit spreads to continue to rise We suspect that corporate credit spreads in the US have now troughed and expect them to keep rising. 17th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Some global market implications of China’s slowing growth We expect slowing economic growth in China to continue to be a headwind for commodity-linked currencies and stock markets over the next couple of years. 16th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Norway going its own way The SNB and the Riksbank will leave interest rates on hold throughout 2022 and 2023 and probably beyond, but the start of rate hikes by the Norges Bank is edging ever closer. (See here.) Once the... 16th August 2021 · 5 mins read
FX Dollar rally takes a breather as US Treasury yields stall The US dollar looks set to end the week little changed against most currencies, as US inflation data – this week’s main data release – failed to push up the currency further. Next week, the minutes of... 13th August 2021 · 11 mins read
