Frontier Markets Wrap A tough start to the year for frontier financial markets Frontier assets have had a difficult start to the year as fears over global growth caused fresh turmoil in financial markets. Oil producers have been particularly hard hit on the back of the collapse... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Commodities collapse triggers fresh rout Financial markets in Latin America have had a torrid start to this year. The renewed falls in commodity prices have been the main factor behind the latest falls in equities and currencies in the... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Should we be worried about Sovereign Wealth Funds? The collapse in oil prices has prompted concerns that many sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) will be forced to liquidate their vast holdings of financial assets, thereby putting further pressure on market... 19th January 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Currencies shrug off looming Fed hike Currencies in Latin America appear to have shrugged off the prospect of a looming US interest rate hike, with most exchange rates broadly unchanged against the dollar month-to-date. The currencies of... 15th December 2015 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack 2015 another year to forget, but outlook brighter Most emerging market (EM) asset classes have underperformed their peers in developed markets so far this year. Plenty of downside risks remain going into 2016, but we continue to think that EM markets... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK stuck between transatlantic policy divergence It now looks odds on that the US Federal Reserve presses ahead and raises interest rates next week, while on the other side of the English Channel, the ECB has already loosened policy further. The UK... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Most EMs well-placed to weather Fed tightening Our Capital Economics Risk Indicator (CERI) suggests that financial risks in the emerging world in aggregate are low and there is little to suggest that the onset of Fed tightening will trigger an EM... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Why the US stock market is not hugely overvalued Some claim that the US stock market is heading for a collapse because they assume that its price/earnings ratio will inevitably plummet to its long-run average. This assumption is wrong if, as seems... 25th November 2015 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Commodity price slump produces mixed policy response The slump in commodity prices over the past year has meant central banks in net commodity exporting and importing countries have continued to follow different paths. Despite the hit to growth from... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Oct.) Bank lending continues to expand at a robust pace, but the increase in domestic credit is dwarfed by the surge in foreign claims, with their yen-value inflated by the weaker exchange rate. 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Oct.) Industrial activity remained subdued last month but a pick-up in investment and strong retail sales suggest that the economy is still on track for a recovery over the coming quarters. 11th November 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook Brighter times may lie ahead for emerging market assets We think the future for most emerging markets is brighter than generally believed. Their poor performance has been a function of close ties with troubled China, heavy reliance on exports of... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update The Gulf, FX reserves and budget spending: a primer Several Gulf countries have turned to their foreign exchange reserves in an effort to finance budget and current account deficits caused by last year’s slump in oil prices, but there seems to be... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Is the New Zealand dollar still overvalued? The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) is likely to update its estimates of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs) next month. We suspect that these will show that the New... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets too dovish in expecting no rate hike until 2017 Markets expectations for the timing of the first hike in UK interest rates have moved significantly over the past month or so. While global market uncertainty in August had meant that markets were... 8th October 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Is the Fed playing “catch-up” with the bond market? The federal funds rate is now expected to rise to less than 3% in a decade’s time, judging by the risk-neutral US Treasury yield curve. This rate remains well below the average projection of FOMC... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read