US Chart Pack Data provide mixed signals on Delta impact The latest data provide mixed signals on the impact that the Delta variant is having on the economy. The high frequency indicators for high contact services suggest that activity levelled out in... 21st September 2021 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily We expect the Aussie dollar to remain under pressure Growing evidence of an economic slowdown in China reinforces our view that the Australian dollar will fall further against the US dollar through the end of this year. 21st September 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Debt risks come back to the fore Problems at Evergrande in China have dominated the headlines recently, but (sovereign) debt risks are brewing in other EMs too. Concerns about higher government spending and rising public debt levels... 21st September 2021 · 9 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Worrying more about higher inflation The recent rises in 2-year and 10-year gilt yields to their highest levels since the “dash for cash” at the start of the pandemic have entirely been driven by the investors revising up their... 21st September 2021 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily A few more thoughts on Evergrande and its implications Further bad news out of China about troubled property developer Evergrande over the weekend has led to a continuation of last week’s risk-off shift across financial markets today. We think three... 20th September 2021 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar edges higher ahead of the September FOMC meeting The dollar has risen against most currencies as markets have remained quiet ahead of next week’s monetary policy announcements. In addition to the FOMC, more than a dozen central banks in developed... 17th September 2021 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily Making sense of the industrial metals/LatAm equities divergence The unusual divergence between the GSCI Industrial Metals and MSCI EM Latin America Index recently reflects a couple of developments which we suspect are one-offs. We think that the typical... 17th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update Inflation & the outlook for bonds in the US, UK & E-Z While we expect the yields of long-dated sovereign bonds to increase further across developed markets over the next two years, we think they will rise by more in the US than in the euro-zone and the... 17th September 2021 · 4 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Japan’s stock market may not go from strength to strength We don’t expect the recent surge in Japan’s stock market to last, and think it will make much smaller gains over the next couple of years. 17th September 2021 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update Falling oil prices unlikely to stop EMEA equity gains Despite the fall in oil prices that we expect over the coming years, we forecast the MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) EMEA Index to make further gains and continue to outperform the broader MSCI EM Index. 17th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada’s election unlikely to be a key driver of the loonie We doubt that the outcome of next week’s federal election in Canada will have much bearing on the economy and the loonie. Instead, we still think that bond yield differentials and oil prices will be... 17th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Developments in China shake up the outlook Three key developments in China over the past month or so are worth highlighting, as they feed into our broader asset allocation forecasts for the next couple of years. First, what started as a... 16th September 2021 · 13 mins read
Capital Daily China’s financial markets, Evergrande, and global spill-overs Although we doubt the current slowdown in China’s economy will reignite 2015-style “hard-landing” fears that weigh heavily on risky assets generally, we are anticipating some negative spill-overs... 16th September 2021 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update What China’s economic slowdown may mean for FX markets The growing risks associated with the property sector in China underscore our view that the renminbi will weaken against the US dollar before long, even if financial stability risks do not escalate... 16th September 2021 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Update Can Sri Lanka avoid default? Falling foreign exchange reserves, a declining currency and a high level of foreign currency debt mean the risk of a sovereign default in Sri Lanka is growing. While the country should be able to... 16th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of inflation and bond yields in the UK and US The renewed rise in consumer price inflation in the UK reported today contrasts with the dip in the US announced yesterday. Admittedly, the former has risen from a low level, while the latter has... 15th September 2021 · 6 mins read
