China Economics Update SDR inclusion could remove near-term support for RMB The inclusion of the renminbi in the IMF’s SDR basket at the start of October will have minimal impact on foreign demand for renminbi assets and therefore offers little support for the Chinese... 26th September 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Rollout of GST is edging closer Progress in implementing the Goods and Services Tax (GST) since the bill was passed in parliament in early August has so far been fairly smooth. However, there are still a number of sticking points... 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Aug. 16) The Teranet house price index shows the national growth rate climbed to a six-year high of 11.4% y/y in August, as prices continued to increase in Vancouver even after the introduction of the new... 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jul. 16) The acceleration in national house price growth to a six-year high of 10.9% y/y in July, from 10.0%, reflects a spreading out of the housing mania beyond just Toronto and Vancouver. The most recent... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Bank of England’s meaningful action boosts asset prices The prospect – and subsequent delivery – of monetary policy stimulus from the Bank of England in August has helped UK assets to continue their recovery from the shock of the vote to leave the EU... 9th August 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Growth not strong enough to boost price pressures Weak survey evidence notwithstanding, the economy likely continued to recover in the second quarter, while the labour market has rarely been tighter. However, wage growth remains anaemic and the past... 8th August 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Capital injections too small to revive banking sector The government’s announcement this week that it will inject more capital into local banks is a positive step, but the amount is still too limited to revive the ailing sector. 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Falling oil supplies trump Brexit concerns The sharp drops in the prices of riskier assets, including oil, after the UK voted to leave the EU have dominated headlines. However, oil prices are now more or less back to their pre-Brexit levels... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Brexit vote rattles EMs The vote by the UK to leave the EU is already creating a flight to safety, with financial markets in EMs that have deeper and more liquid markets (Mexico), large current account deficits (South Africa... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Fallout from Brexit vote would be limited A vote by the UK to leave the European Union in tomorrow's referendum would be unlikely to have much impact on India's economy. Indian exports to the UK are equivalent to less than 0.5% of GDP, so... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Has the rally in “junk” bonds gone too far? The strong performance of non-investment grade (or “junk”) dollar-denominated government bonds in recent weeks has driven the yield premium over investment grade bonds down to 360bp, a level rarely... 4th May 2016 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Markets rally, Brazilian assets outperform A recovery in global commodity prices has helped to support a broad-based rally in Latin America’s financial markets so far this month. Brazilian assets are down a little today but they have... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Shortage of assets won’t prevent ECB QE expansion The limited supply of eligible government bonds need not prevent the ECB from delivering the significant increase in asset purchases that is needed to impress investors. We see it buying the debt of a... 2nd March 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus A closer look at financial conditions Financial conditions have tightened in recent months, as the dollar has continued to trend higher, corporate credit spreads have widened and stock markets have suffered a correction. Nevertheless... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Will capital controls work? Many countries facing balance of payments strains have found that large outflows continue even after they tighten capital controls. China though stands a better chance of success. The capital account... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Jan.) Despite a small drop last month, consumer confidence remains strong. However, household inflation expectations are now approaching levels last seen before the Bank of Japan launched Quantitative and... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
