Capital Daily Assessing the outlook for DM monetary policy & bonds Even though we think that most major developed markets (DM) central banks will hike their policy rates more slowly than investors currently anticipate over the next two years, we still expect the... 20th October 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Near-term recovery to face stronger headwinds The region has experienced a rapid recovery, but the re-opening boost has now faded and the region is likely to face stronger headwinds in the near term due to surging COVID-19 cases, rising inflation... 20th October 2021 · 28 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Well placed to navigate choppy waters As highly-open economies, Switzerland and the Nordics are far from immune to the issues of slowing global growth and supply-chain shortages that are currently vexing investors. Sweden is perhaps most... 20th October 2021 · 13 mins read
Capital Daily We expect the rise in China’s bond yields to reverse Rather than continue its recent rise, we think that the 10-year government bond yield in China will fall back over the next couple of years, even as US Treasury yields climb further. 18th October 2021 · 5 mins read
EM Valuations Monitor Lower valuations may not help EM equities outperform We don’t think the low valuations of emerging market (EM) equity indices relative to those of developed markets (DMs) is reason to expect EM equities to outperform over the next couple of years. 18th October 2021 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap US dollar falls back as Treasury yields edge down The US dollar seems set to end the week lower against most currencies, as “risky” assets have rallied and US Treasury yields have edged down a bit. This fall back in the dollar and US yields is... 15th October 2021 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt China’s slowdown will stop Treasury yields from rising We doubt that worries about a sharp slowdown in China’s economy will prevent US Treasury yields from rising further, in contrast to what took place in mid-to-late 2015. 15th October 2021 · 7 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Monetary policy divergences The Norges Bank’s tightening cycle began at the end of last month and we suspect that investors are underestimating the pace of rate hikes to come. By contrast, the Riskbank looks set to leave... 15th October 2021 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update We don’t expect tapering to be a key driver of the US dollar We doubt that the direct effects of the tapering of the Fed’s asset purchases will have much of an impact on the US dollar, and think that other factors will be more important in pushing the greenback... 15th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of expectations for US corporate earnings While the handful of Q3 earnings results published by S&P 500 firms so far have beaten expectations, we doubt that US equities will get much of a boost from upward revisions to earnings forecasts from... 14th October 2021 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect the rally in commodity currencies to be short-lived Although we wouldn’t be surprised if energy prices remained elevated for a while, we still think they will fall back over the next year, weighing on the currencies of net energy exporters. 14th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update We think the sell-off in DM bonds will resume While the yields of long-dated government bonds in the euro-zone, UK and US have dropped back a bit in recent days, we think they will rise between now and the end of 2023. We expect increases in... 14th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Another look at US inflation compensation Although investors took today’s US CPI release in their stride, we still think there is scope for longer-dated Treasury yields to rise further over time. 13th October 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital inflows into EMs appear to have dropped over the past few weeks as investors have turned more risk averse. Looking ahead, a further rise in US Treasury yields could lead to larger outflows... 13th October 2021 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack Dollar reaches a crossroad The US dollar has rallied to its strongest level since November 2020, and we think it will remain strong on the back of the Fed’s hawkish shift and ongoing uncertainty around the global recovery. 11th October 2021 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily “High-beta” G10 currencies unlikely to benefit from rising yields We expect the US dollar to continue to grind higher against most other G10 currencies, and doubt that “high-beta” ones will fare much better than “low-growth” ones, such as the euro. 11th October 2021 · 5 mins read
