Global Markets Outlook We expect long-term yields to rise further While long-dated government bond yields have risen quite a bit in recent months, we suspect that continued inflationary pressure and the prospect of tighter monetary policy means they still have some... 27th October 2021 · 29 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the dollar/oil relationship The relationship between the US dollar and the price of oil is usually negative, but over the past two months oil prices have risen and the greenback has appreciated. While this pattern may persist... 27th October 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Fiscal risks in the spotlight The growing likelihood that Brazil’s government will circumvent its spending cap adds to broader signs that austerity is becoming politically difficult to implement across the region. For instance... 26th October 2021 · 10 mins read
FX Markets Update High-beta G10 rally built on shaky foundations We think that the recent re-pricing of near-term interest rate expectations across most developed markets is overdone and that several of the “high-beta” G10 currencies will come under renewed... 26th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Boost to gold from lower real yields may not last We don’t expect the price of gold to continue to rebound. Our forecast remains that it will end 2023 at $1,550/oz., which compares to a current level of closer to $1,800/oz. 26th October 2021 · 5 mins read
China Economic Outlook Downturn setting in The economy slowed sharply in Q3. Weakness in services is already reversing as virus controls have been relaxed again. But industry and construction are on the cusp of a deeper downturn that could... 26th October 2021 · 23 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation compensation, Treasury yields & the US stock market While we do not expect a tumble in the US stock market, we doubt that it will remain quite as resilient in the face of rising US Treasury yields as it has in recent weeks. 25th October 2021 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap US dollar edges lower ahead of next round of CB meetings With a couple of exceptions, currency markets have had a quiet week; the US dollar is ending the week a touch weaker against most other currencies, but in aggregate it remains close to its strongest... 22nd October 2021 · 9 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Oct.) Our monthly Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections... 22nd October 2021 · 1 min read
Capital Daily We think Brazil’s financial markets will remain under pressure While Brazil’s financial markets have now fallen a long way, we don’t expect them to rebound any time soon. 22nd October 2021 · 7 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Investors overestimating interest rate hikes The extent of the shift in investors’ expectations of interest rates over the past month has been staggering. Investors are now pricing in an 80% chance of a hike to Bank Rate, from 0.10% to 0.25%, at... 22nd October 2021 · 8 mins read
Asset Allocation Focus Examining the threat to US equities from rising wage inflation We expect rising wage inflation in the US to squeeze the profits of the non-financial corporate sector, which were a record high as a share of its output in Q2. This is one reason why we think the... 22nd October 2021 · 14 mins read
FX Markets Update Most signs point to further trouble for the Turkish lira We expect the Turkish lira to remain among the worst-performing currencies over the next two years, as political pressures, high inflation, and a vulnerable external position continue to weigh on the... 22nd October 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Market pricing on RBA too aggressive Despite the rise in virus cases in recent weeks, strong inflation in New Zealand increases the pressure on the RBNZ to tighten policy further. While we are sticking to our forecast of a 25bp hike in... 22nd October 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Further rate cuts likely to add to the lira’s woes The lira fell to a new low against the US dollar today as a result of a larger-than-expected cut of 200 bp to the 1-week repo rate by Turkey’s central bank (CBRT). Continued pressure from President... 21st October 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update China’s economic slowdown and US Treasury yields Although slowing growth in China has probably weighed on US Treasury yields in the past, we don’t expect it to prevent them from rising over the next couple of years. 21st October 2021 · 5 mins read
