Global Markets Update We doubt Brazilian assets will rebound any time soon While Brazil’s bond and stock markets have struggled lately, we don’t think either are set for a significant rebound any time soon, and suspect both will remain under pressure in the run-up to next... 5th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update We expect the Brazilian real to remain under pressure We think that the Brazilian real will weaken a bit further against the US dollar over the next year, as fiscal risks and deteriorating terms of trade continue to weigh on the currency. In view of the... 4th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Three key points on the latest round of central bank meetings Over the past three days, the BoE, the Fed, and the RBA all delivered relatively dovish policy announcements, pushing back, to varying degrees, against the relatively aggressive policy rate paths... 4th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Reading the runes of relative valuation within the US stock market One reason to think that the performance of the US stock market will underwhelm, at least in the long run, is that some of the gaps between the valuations of its most highly and lowly valued companies... 4th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Two points on US corporate earnings and the stock market We think the earnings picture looks better for some sectors of the stock market than others, but overall it is likely to support only limited gains in equities over the next couple of years. 3rd November 2021 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update We think DM yield curves will steepen again While the recent rise in the yields of short-dated developed market (DM) government bonds looks overdone to us, we still think that the yields of long-dated bonds will resume their rise. 3rd November 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: comparisons with the 2018 currency crisis The economic and political backdrop in Turkey is eerily similar to that which preceded the currency crisis in 2018, although one key difference now is that the lira doesn’t appear to be fundamentally... 3rd November 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Investors’ expectations and the outlook for DM monetary policy Although near-term inflationary pressures may prompt most developed market (DM) central banks to bring forward their plans to normalise policy a bit, we continue to think that most will raise rates... 2nd November 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We still expect E-Z peripheral spreads to remain low While the spreads of 10-year euro-zone “peripheral” government bonds have risen sharply since the ECB’s policy announcement last Thursday, we still expect them to remain very low over the next few... 1st November 2021 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update We don’t expect dollar/oil correlation to stay positive for long Despite their recent positive correlation, we think that oil and the dollar will go in opposite directions before long: we continue to think that oil prices will fall back as the supply situation... 1st November 2021 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Currencies stay mostly calm amid carnage in bond markets Currency markets remained remarkably stable for most of this week, although the US dollar is rallying sharply today on the back of data showing very strong wage growth in the US, even as a major... 29th October 2021 · 9 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook Risky assets face a more challenging backdrop While the combination of a strong economic recovery and accommodative monetary policy has fuelled healthy returns for many investors over the past 18 months or so, we think that the macroeconomic... 29th October 2021 · 25 mins read
Capital Daily Monetary policy, the yield curve, and bond market conundrums While rises in short-term bond yields haven’t always coincided with higher long-term yields, we are sticking with our view that 10-year bond yields will rise in most major economies over the next... 29th October 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s spat, Poland-EU dispute and the zloty A diplomatic spat between Turkey and its Western allies this week was quickly resolved, but it highlighted how vulnerable the lira is to geopolitical developments. And comments from Turkey’s central... 29th October 2021 · 9 mins read
China Economics Weekly Renminbi’s strength carries echoes of 2015 The renminbi has risen 10% in trade-weighted terms since the middle of last year, reaching its strongest level in over five years this week. The last time we witnessed such rapid gains, they... 29th October 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily A few thoughts on developed market yield curves While the flattening of developed markets (DM) yield curves since mid-October gathered pace yesterday, we still expect yield curves in most DMs to steepen again in the near term. 28th October 2021 · 7 mins read
