India Chart Pack Cautious optimism as 2020 ends COVID-19 has ravaged India’s economy in 2020, and GDP is all but certain to have suffered its largest slump on record this year. But there are reasons for optimism as the year draws to a close... 23rd December 2020 · 9 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Go To Travel suspension will weigh on consumption PM Suga’s decision on Tuesday to halt the Go To Travel campaign for two weeks from 28th December may put the recovery in services spending into temporary reverse. It comes after authorities in Tokyo... 17th December 2020 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Labour markets prove resilient We have been arguing for some time that the unemployment rate would not rise as much as most believed in either Australia or New Zealand. We remain confident in those forecasts. Admittedly, the... 30th November 2020 · 11 mins read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Lockdown pushes recovery into 2022 The outlook for most commercial property sectors was already fragile and this has only been dampened by the second lockdown. Although transactions are set to pick up next year, we think property... 20th November 2020 · 25 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Only light-touch restrictions on horizon for now Japan is in the midst of a third wave of COVID-19. Daily infections have already reached their previous early-August peak. Only the Hokkaido Government has responded with countermeasures so far... 17th November 2020 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack On the road to recovery As restrictions have been lifted in both countries, activity has rebounded. Admittedly, the second draconian lockdown in Victoria will hold back the recovery in GDP in Australia in Q3 and Q4. But we... 29th October 2020 · 11 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Falling CMBS delinquencies explain slower debt growth Outstanding commercial real estate debt held by banks is likely to rise again in the coming months, providing the improvement in investment transactions seen in September continues. Yet even if there... 22nd October 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Second lockdown fears weigh on equities The growing risk of a second national UK lockdown has spooked equity markets over the last week. We already expect the recovery to stall in Q4 and additional COVID-19 restrictions could easily throw... 22nd October 2020 · 8 mins read
Asset Allocation Focus The world after COVID-19 We forecast that the returns from equities will beat those from government bonds in the world after COVID-19. However, we expect the outperformance of large-cap equities in the US to end. 20th October 2020 · 25 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Huge policy support paves way for strong recovery Australia and New Zealand have had far greater success in containing the virus than most other large advanced economies. Coupled with huge fiscal support, that means that the recovery in economic... 15th October 2020 · 24 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Rising labour costs to prevent slump in inflation Inflation has held up better than we had anticipated in recent months. The surge in spare capacity suggests that it could weaken more sharply as social distancing measures are relaxed. But we only... 12th October 2020 · 10 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Recovery could surprise to the upside Japan’s success in containing the virus without imposing draconian restrictions on activity should enable a faster return to pre-virus levels of output than in many major economies. We expect GDP to... 8th October 2020 · 21 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Victoria restrictions didn’t hit as hard as initially feared The surge in case numbers due to the second wave in Melbourne has been brought under control with new daily cases falling back towards zero. Heavy restrictions on activity still remain in place in... 30th September 2020 · 10 mins read
Global Markets Update Despite ECB, we see upside risks to our euro forecast Despite its recent rally, the euro is not particularly strong in our view, and we think that it could well rise further over the next couple of years. In view of the wider interest, we are sending... 11th September 2020 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Spate of financial crises avoided, but hangovers loom Most major EMs have managed to avoid acute balance of payments, banking sector and sovereign debt problems so far this year. But pockets of vulnerability remain. In particular, the risk of another... 4th September 2020 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Aug) Our Tracker suggests that EMs experienced net capital inflows last month for the first time since the coronavirus crisis began. Daily data suggest that net capital inflows were generally sustained in... 26th August 2020 · 3 mins read
