FX Markets Weekly Wrap All eyes on Wednesday’s FOMC announcement Although Treasury yields somewhat surprisingly fell after the larger-than-expected rise in last month’s inflation in the US, the dollar is ending the week slightly stronger against most currencies... 11th June 2021 · 9 mins read
FX Markets Focus Why we expect the US dollar to reverse course Having fallen back to near its post-pandemic lows, we don’t think that the decline in the US dollar will continue. In this Focus, we explain why instead we expect the dollar to strengthen against most... 11th June 2021 · 11 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect the tailwind to stocks from commodities to fade The rise in commodity prices has boosted some commodity-heavy stock markets, but we suspect that it will run out of steam before long, limiting those stock markets’ gains over the next couple of years... 10th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Prospects for risky assets no longer seem as bright We are still anticipating an extremely rapid recovery in the global economy over the rest of this year. But even so, it has become more difficult to make the case that returns from risky assets across... 10th June 2021 · 13 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (May 2021) Our monthly Long Run Returns Monitor provides an updated set of projections for the returns from major asset classes over the next few decades. Given that the period since the previous edition of this... 27th May 2021 · 1 min read
Capital Daily We expect credit spreads to remain low, with some exceptions We think sovereign and corporate credit spreads will generally remain lows in the next two years. The main exceptions are sovereign credit spreads in Latin America, Emerging Europe and Africa, which... 27th May 2021 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Economic recovery facilitates house price surge House prices are now surging in both countries. House price cycles in the Australian housing market tend to lag those in New Zealand a little, which is consistent with the forward indicators pointing... 29th April 2021 · 11 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Apr. 2021) Following their sharp rises earlier on in the year, government bond yields have steadied over the past few weeks. Perhaps reflecting this, both global equities and developed market (DM) REITs have... 23rd April 2021 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Virus restrictions start to bite Our in-house mobility tracker suggests that the surge in virus infections in India is now weighing on activity. This is likely to become more pronounced as the outbreak has become more widespread... 21st April 2021 · 10 mins read
Long Run Update US stock market unlikely to keep beating its economy While the stock market fared much better than the economy in the US overall during the past ten years, we do not expect that to remain the case. 17th March 2021 · 3 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Mar. 2021) In this first edition of the Long Run Returns Monitor we present an updated version of the projected returns from the major asset classes which feature in our annual Long Run Asset Allocation Outlook... 5th March 2021 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Wage growth near its trough Labour markets in both countries have tightened in recent months. In Australia, the unemployment rate has fallen from a peak of 7.1% to just 6.4% in January. And other measures of spare capacity have... 1st March 2021 · 11 mins read
India Chart Pack Activity returning to pre-virus levels Indian GDP data due to be released on Friday are likely to show only a small contraction in annual growth in Q4 2020, and high-frequency indicators point to a relatively strong start to 2021. Indeed... 24th February 2021 · 9 mins read
Japan Chart Pack GDP will soon be back at pre-virus path The strong rise in output in Q4 2020 to just 1.2% below Q4 2019 levels bolsters our view that Japan’s economy will be back to the level it reached before the tax hike and close to its pre-virus path... 22nd February 2021 · 10 mins read
Asset Allocation Long-Term Outlook 2020s unlikely to be a rerun of the 1930s and 2000s We anticipate that US equities will outperform long-dated Treasuries over the next ten years, even though the valuation of the stock market is even higher now than it was at the beginning of the 1930s... 16th February 2021 · 19 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Surge in growth will allow central banks to step back The recovery in GDP and employment in both Australia and New Zealand is set to continue surprising to the upside. As such, we expect the RBA to stop its QE programme in April. Meanwhile, we estimate... 18th January 2021 · 24 mins read
