Global Markets Update Earnings expectations and the outlook for DM equities We think that there is more scope for earnings expectations to improve outside, than inside, the US. In both cases, though, we are not anticipating upward revisions on the scale seen over the past... 2nd July 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian ruble may hold onto some of this year’s gains The Russian ruble appreciated to a one-year high against the dollar recently but we think the rally will fade as oil prices fall back and US Treasury yields rise further. That said, the central bank’s... 2nd July 2021 · 3 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Weighing up the prospects for the NOK We think that the Norwegian krone will continue to strengthen against the euro over next year or so. This is despite our forecast for a pull-back in oil prices and reflects our view of the relative... 1st July 2021 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Would US equities beat Treasuries if inflation surged? The received wisdom is that inflation is worse for government bonds than for equities. Yet the S&P 500 has fared worse than 10-year Treasuries in a couple of periods of high inflation in the US since... 1st July 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Vaccine campaigns running into supply constraints With the more contagious delta variant spreading in Australia, half of the population is now in lockdown. This highlights the Achilles heel of both countries’ virus management: their slow vaccine... 30th June 2021 · 11 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack We expect generally higher long-term EM bond yields We think investors may be overestimating how much monetary policy tightening is on the way in emerging markets (EMs), but still expect long-dated EM government bond yields to rise a bit from here. 29th June 2021 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap US ISM and payrolls could add fuel to the dollar rally The US dollar seems set to end the week slightly weaker, but has held much of its gains following last Wednesday’s FOMC announcement. With increasing focus on the prospects for monetary tightening... 25th June 2021 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily Banxico & the prospects for high carry EM currencies Banxico’s surprise interest rate hike highlights the growing pressure on many emerging market central banks from the combination of rising inflation and the Fed’s shift towards policy normalisation... 25th June 2021 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack We think the rally in the US dollar has further to run The sharp rise in the US dollar following last week’s FOMC meeting reinforces our view that the greenback will appreciate further against most currencies this year. 24th June 2021 · 10 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect the 10-year Treasury yield to rise again Although the 10-year Treasury yield has eased back following last week’s FOMC meeting, we still expect it to increase again before too long. 24th June 2021 · 3 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Jun. 2021) Given that the moves in most financial markets since the previous editionof our Long Run Returns Monitor have been fairly small–at least for the period as a whole –the returns that we are projecting... 24th June 2021 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets expect earlier rate hikes to quash inflation The combination of the Fed’s more hawkish tone and the larger-than-expected rise in UK CPI inflation in May to 2.1% has led the financial markets to bring forward their expectations of when the Bank... 23rd June 2021 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily We think that returns from US corporate bonds will underwhelm US corporate credit spreads have reached post-Global-Financial-Crisis (GFC) lows in recent weeks. So, despite our forecast for a healthy US economy, we expect US corporate bonds to outperform... 22nd June 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We expect further US dollar appreciation We think that the surge in the US dollar which has followed Wednesday’s FOMC meeting is a sign of things to come. 18th June 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Riksbank might rethink; Swedish gov’t on the brink Against the backdrop of a red-hot housing market, the Riksbank might draw inspiration from the Swedish football team, which embodied one of the ideals of central banking in its opening Euro 2020 game... 18th June 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Three key points on the fallout from the FOMC The market reaction to the Fed’s optimistic assessment of the economic outlook strengthens our conviction that US Treasury yields will end the year significantly higher. 17th June 2021 · 6 mins read
