Capital Daily What next for the Treasury yield curve? We expect the Treasury yield curve to steepen further over the coming year, but driven by falling short-dated yields rather than – as has been the case in the wake of Trump’s win – rising long-dated... 14th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Bonds Update What to make of shrinking swap spreads in Germany We wouldn’t read much into the recent contraction in swap spreads in Germany. Despite turning negative, the 10-year euro-zone OIS/Bund spread is not far below its level before the pandemic. And it... 14th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Bonds Update Fiscal risks cloud upbeat outlook for Brazil sovereign bonds We think investors are now overestimating how tight Brazil’s central bank will keep policy over the coming years, so we expect local-currency bond yields there to fall by end-2025. Still, fiscal... 14th November 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation might soon be front-page news again While investors shrugged off today’s news on US inflation, they seem increasingly concerned about its longer-term outlook. We share their view and expect Treasury yields to rise a bit further still. 13th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Will Trump’s next trade war upend the S&P 500? We doubt the S&P 500 will come a cropper in 2025 even though the index fell in 2018 when Donald Trump began to wage a less ambitious trade war than the one he is planning now. 12th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Euro parity is back on the cards The euro has suffered more than most in the wake of Trump’s victory and we doubt that will let up anytime soon. Given our view that tariffs will be imposed next year and the ECB will ease by more than... 11th November 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Trump, tariffs, and the dollar While President Trump’s return to the White House and the apparent Republican sweep in Congress made a big splash in currency markets – Wednesday saw the largest single day rise in the DXY index since... 8th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Trump presidency to bring mixed outcomes for Africa A shift towards trade protectionism in the US would lead to a more pronounced strengthening of the dollar, larger falls in African local currencies and make it even harder countries like Angola and... 8th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Will Trump really be good for US equities? We expect the policies that will be delivered during Donald Trump’s second term to be a headwind for equities in the US. We still anticipate strong gains next year on the back of growing AI-enthusiasm... 8th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Mexico’s lessons from Trump 1.0, Argentina’s hopes One explanation being put forward to explain the relatively modest moves in the Mexican peso since Trump's election victory is that the country may be spared many of Trump’s tariffs threats (as... 8th November 2024 · 7 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Winners and losers in Asia from a Trump presidency We have taken out the two 25bps cuts that we had pencilled in for Bank Indonesia’s last two meetings of the year. But for most places in Asia, a Trump presidency shouldn’t have a huge impact on... 8th November 2024 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly MAGA meets Make in India The Trump trade has pushed the rupee to a fresh low this week and we think further weakness lies ahead. But big moves in the currency are unlikely given the prospect of FX intervention by the RBI... 8th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Australia will be fairly insulated from Trump 2.0 The RBA left rates unchanged on Tuesday, while maintaining a broadly neutral stance. However, the Bank’s meeting was quickly overshadowed by the US election and the prospect of a second Trump... 8th November 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Trump, the Fed & the outlook for USTs and the dollar With the US election out of the way and markets starting to settle down after some dramatic swings yesterday, attention now turns back to the more humdrum topic of central bank policy and the near... 7th November 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update New market forecasts ahead of a new Trump presidency We have revised some of our key market forecasts in response to Donald Trump’s victory and the news that the Republicans are on course to regain full control of Congress. These include higher... 7th November 2024 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Interactive Markets Chart Pack We have updated our Interactive Markets Chart Pack with our views on the latest developments in global markets, and how we expect them to perform in 2025 and beyond. Note: This Chart Pack is updated... 13th March 2025 · 1 min read
