Nordic & Swiss Economics Post-pandemic recovery phase drawing to a close As elsewhere in mainland Europe, activity in Switzerland and the Nordic economies rebounded in Q2 as services sectors re-opened and the strength of global trade has buoyed exports. Our GDP forecasts... 22nd July 2021 · 13 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Vaccines should limit Delta damage While infections are now rising sharply nationwide – particularly in Tokyo where the Delta variant has the strongest hold – most of the vulnerable population are now fully vaccinated so we doubt... 22nd July 2021 · 10 mins read
Asset Allocation Tempering our optimism We no longer expect equities and corporate bonds to outperform “safe” government bonds by anything like as much as we did a couple of quarters ago, and we continue to forecast that some other “risky”... 21st July 2021 · 25 mins read
Capital Daily We expect EM currencies to remain under pressure We doubt that today’s rebound in emerging market currencies marks the start of a renewed rally and expect them to continue to depreciate against the US dollar over the next few years. 21st July 2021 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics A two-speed recovery Strong COVID-19 vaccine rollouts in most of the Gulf and Morocco mean that remaining virus restrictions should be lifted by the end of this year, providing a boost to recoveries that, in the Gulf... 21st July 2021 · 25 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Strong recovery, but inflation a lasting concern Rapid recoveries are underway across the region and GDP should return close to its pre-pandemic path sooner than in most other EM regions. While the spread of highly transmissible virus strains poses... 21st July 2021 · 28 mins read
Capital Daily Stock market wobble probably not a sign of things to come We doubt that the recent weakness in global equities is the start of a larger rout and think the market will recover before long. 20th July 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Delta variant adds to consumption headwinds Although 60% of American adults are now fully vaccinated, the uptick in coronavirus infections linked to the Delta variant has been accompanied by a slight rebound in fears over the spread of the... 20th July 2021 · 9 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar continues to edge higher despite stalling US yields While the US dollar rose sharply after Tuesday’s exceptionally strong inflation print, that was partly offset by Fed Chair Powell’s relatively dovish comments in his testimony to Congress. But overall... 16th July 2021 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily Investor positioning may be one factor behind the fall in yields Changes in investor positioning may help to explain some of the decline in 10-year US Treasury yields recently, as a large speculative net short position had built up in Q1. But we still think that... 16th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Rising US Treasury yields likely to drive DM bond yields higher We continue to expect that a continued global economic recovery and high US inflation will cause US Treasury yields to rise and push long-term government bond yields in most other developed markets. 14th July 2021 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Growth concerns buoy the dollar despite falling US yields Although it has fallen back a bit today after China delivered a surprise cut to banks’ reserve requirements, the US dollar has otherwise continued to appreciate against most currencies. The dollar’s... 9th July 2021 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update Taking stock of our Treasury yield forecasts We don’t expect the latest tumble in long-dated US Treasury yields to continue, and still think yields will rise significantly over the next few years. But given developments over the past couple of... 9th July 2021 · 5 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor High valuations may hold back risky assets While we don’t think that risky assets are in a systemic bubble, we suspect there is limited scope for further large increases in valuations to drive their prices higher over the next few years. 9th July 2021 · 8 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What’s behind renewed US equity outperformance? It has become harder to make the case that the stock market in the US will fare worse than those in the rest of the developed world, now that the “rotation” trade has fizzled out. Nonetheless, we... 7th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily US payrolls and Treasury yields Although the 10-year Treasury yield hardly moved after today’s release of the US Employment Report for June, we still expect it to resume its rise before long. 2nd July 2021 · 6 mins read
