FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rally pauses as Fed & US data disappoint Following a strong run over the past month, the US dollar has weakened across the board this week after some softer-than-expected US data and a non-committal FOMC. Next week’s key data releases... 30th July 2021 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily We expect stock market gains to underwhelm from here Although we don’t think the latest ructions in stock markets suggest a more significant rout is on the way, we suspect that stocks’ recovery from their pandemic-era lows has largely run its course... 30th July 2021 · 7 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Jul. 2021) While emerging market equities have generally struggled since the previous edition of our Long Run Returns Monitor was published, most other asset classes have fared reasonably well. Most notably... 30th July 2021 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly South Africa’s fiscal tightrope, FX reshuffling in Nigeria "Post-unrest relief measures announced by the South African authorities will probably go some way to offset the blow to the economy. The government expects to be able to stick to its fiscal... 30th July 2021 · 5 mins read
Bonds & Equities We don’t expect the rally in bond markets to continue While long-dated government bond yields have plummeted in recent months, we suspect that high inflation and the prospect of tighter monetary policy will see them turn a corner before long. We forecast... 30th July 2021 · 29 mins read
China Chart Pack Investors refocus on long-term concerns Questions about the strength of China’s post-lockdown rebound have become louder since the People’s Bank cut the required reserve ratio three weeks ago. But the trigger for this week’s sharp equity... 30th July 2021 · 13 mins read
Capital Daily Bond market pessimism looks overdone The US yield curve continues to send a gloomy message, which we think is hard to square with the economic outlook. 29th July 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Re-opening should more than offset wildfire disruption The wildfires in British Columbia appear to have been more disruptive than we first thought, but GDP should still rise this month thanks to the easing of the coronavirus restrictions. The volume of... 29th July 2021 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily We think US real yields are unlikely to stay this low The yields of long-dated US Treasuries have edged down this week, and those of TIPS have dropped to a new record low, but we still expect both to recover over the next couple of years. 28th July 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We doubt global saving will stop US yields from rising In the early 2000s, a ‘glut’ of global saving may have helped restrain rises in long-term US bond yields, even as investors began to discount tighter monetary policy. We don’t think that similar... 28th July 2021 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack We expect more upside for the US dollar We continue to think that the US dollar will rise further in the second half of the year as the divergence between the US and other major economies in terms of growth and, especially, inflation... 27th July 2021 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily China’s stock market sell-off and the rest of the world Although equity indices in both Hong Kong and mainland China have fallen sharply in recent days, the impact on financial markets elsewhere in the world has, so far, been remarkably limited. This... 27th July 2021 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update Forecast revisions & taking stock of our key calls We have revised down our forecasts for many of the G10 “high-beta” currencies and several currencies in EM Asia and LatAm. This update sets out the rationale behind those revisions and updates our key... 23rd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily The ECB’s new guidance and its implications for E-Z bonds We don’t think the changes to the ECB’s guidance announced today or the Bank’s recent strategy review materially alter the near-term outlook for government bonds in the euro-zone. However, they make... 22nd July 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect Bund yields to rise, but only gradually Though we think that the recent decline in the 10-year Bund yield is an overreaction, we expect it to rise only a little over the next couple of years, and by less than yields in many other developed... 22nd July 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets to regain their poise as recoveries continue While the resurgence in COVID-19 cases that has recently weighted on UK equities, the pound and 10-year gilt yields is clearly a downside risk, our view that it won’t deal a big blow to the global or... 22nd July 2021 · 8 mins read
